Major Parker
Published by BG on Thursday, January 05, 2006 at 8:12 AM.
Major Parker
The only thing in horse racing that compares to the feeling of mental superiority you have after watching a race shake out exactly as you thought is the unabashed glee you feel when some goofball bet you made crosses the wire in the oddest way possible.
And so it went today with Major Parker in the fifth.
CompuTrak is a piece of software I picked up when I was working for OJ based on a reader's inquiry. It purports to measure the horse's chances based on an engineering analysis of their "friction." Horses with low friction should theoretically move with greater ease around the track. I'm sure it's more complex than that, but friction sounds more palatable to me than some weird-ass astrologically-based analysis of the race.
Then again, with the small number of fairly decent longshots I've hit with this thing since July, I don't care how it's delivering picks. I use the software to take longshot fliers. Period. I think my own handicapping is strong enough to find the low and mid-priced horses capable of contending, but I do love taking a chance on a horse with odds in the obscene double digits too. Just give me a reason.
Anyway, not only did CompuTrak identify Major Parker as a "CompuTrak Pick," deeming him the race's best bet, but he also was tabbed with a software-defined oddsline under 3-1. For a horse at 20-1 on the Morning Line, that's high praise indeed.
So I put a $4 win and $4 place bet on the horse. Normally, I try to keep my betting to the win pool, but on a longshot you don't want to see him cross second with no cash on that possibility. As post time approached, the odds kept floating up and up. 20-1 became 40-1, and when the dust settled, it was 75-1. Needless to say, a horse crossing the line first at 75-1 is as rare as those numbers would indicate. But oddly, I had a feeling this race would be won by a longshot, so I covered every 15-1 plus shot on the board with a $2 win bet, keeping the "big money" on Major Parker alone.
They lined up the horses in the gate for the 1 1/16 mile route on the grass with Major Parker loading in the nine gate, just to the inside of the race favorite.
The gate flew open and Major Parker shot out almost dead right. Not "right" as in "correct," but "right" as in "careening off the side of the race favorite in the ten hole." He pushed the ten another three or four wide, and then seemed to get his hooves underneath him. And he started to go. Fast. Real fast. Major Parker's awkward start cost him a couple of strides on the field, and yet he seemed intent on making it all up before the first turn. He flew past the pack three or four wide, and caught the lead about a sixteenth before the turn.
He was flying. :23 and change for the first quarter, which I hated in this class and at this distance. What is he doing? He's going too fast. Not only that, but turf routes are usually won by the patient. I've seen it too many times where a seemingly blistering pacesetter looks nearly invicible rounding the final turn, only to go from first to worst as the field gains and passes in the stretch.
But Major Parker was out there, up front, and thankfully was getting some pressure from Freddie Mata on Quite The Guy. Freddie brought his horse up to the outside of Major Parker (ridden by some dude named Castillo), and I hoped Major Parker's competitive streak would kick in - not that his past performances indicated he had any sort of competitive streak at all. Still, I was ready based on those early fractions to write that $8 off into the ether. He was going too fast, the rest of the pack was only a couple lengths behind, and there was no way this lead was sustainable, even with competition finally challenging to the outside.
Wrong.
Major Parker dueled with Quite The Guy from the half pole, four and a half furlongs from the wire. The two put three lengths, then four between the lead and the pack, which gave me hope.
Around the final turn, and somehow the pack just wasn't gaining on the leaders. Quite The Guy finally got his head out front with about a furlong and a half to go, and I was resigned to taking what would be a pretty nice payout in the place pool. But then somehow Major Parker found a burst. He lurched out front, and got about half his body out in front of Quite The Guy before feinting just a bit to the outside. Quite The Guy got a little spooked and bounced a step or two out, which probably cost him whatever forward momentum he may have had left. Major Parker popped out a length and then another half, continuing his diagonal motion to the outside. Quite The Guy had nothing left, the pack was far enough behind to not threaten, and Major Parker went from tight on the rail at the top of the stretch to a barely-controlled five wide at the wire, crossing first.
Of course, they made me sweat it out. The little deke Major Parker made that made Quite The Guy hop outside caused a Steward's Inquiry, which are the two scariest words possible when holding a potentially winning ticket. Thankfully, the inquiry passed quickly and they didn't take my horse down to the place, and I was $414 richer. I don't know if I've ever made more on a single race, but I know I've never made more off a single horse. And what should have been the icing on the cake? I ignored the software's next pick, which was a just warmer than lukewarm endorsement of a 28-1 horse I hated - who ended up crossing in first and paying almost $60. Great day could have been spectacular, but I'll live.
The only thing in horse racing that compares to the feeling of mental superiority you have after watching a race shake out exactly as you thought is the unabashed glee you feel when some goofball bet you made crosses the wire in the oddest way possible.
And so it went today with Major Parker in the fifth.
CompuTrak is a piece of software I picked up when I was working for OJ based on a reader's inquiry. It purports to measure the horse's chances based on an engineering analysis of their "friction." Horses with low friction should theoretically move with greater ease around the track. I'm sure it's more complex than that, but friction sounds more palatable to me than some weird-ass astrologically-based analysis of the race.
Then again, with the small number of fairly decent longshots I've hit with this thing since July, I don't care how it's delivering picks. I use the software to take longshot fliers. Period. I think my own handicapping is strong enough to find the low and mid-priced horses capable of contending, but I do love taking a chance on a horse with odds in the obscene double digits too. Just give me a reason.
Anyway, not only did CompuTrak identify Major Parker as a "CompuTrak Pick," deeming him the race's best bet, but he also was tabbed with a software-defined oddsline under 3-1. For a horse at 20-1 on the Morning Line, that's high praise indeed.
So I put a $4 win and $4 place bet on the horse. Normally, I try to keep my betting to the win pool, but on a longshot you don't want to see him cross second with no cash on that possibility. As post time approached, the odds kept floating up and up. 20-1 became 40-1, and when the dust settled, it was 75-1. Needless to say, a horse crossing the line first at 75-1 is as rare as those numbers would indicate. But oddly, I had a feeling this race would be won by a longshot, so I covered every 15-1 plus shot on the board with a $2 win bet, keeping the "big money" on Major Parker alone.
They lined up the horses in the gate for the 1 1/16 mile route on the grass with Major Parker loading in the nine gate, just to the inside of the race favorite.
The gate flew open and Major Parker shot out almost dead right. Not "right" as in "correct," but "right" as in "careening off the side of the race favorite in the ten hole." He pushed the ten another three or four wide, and then seemed to get his hooves underneath him. And he started to go. Fast. Real fast. Major Parker's awkward start cost him a couple of strides on the field, and yet he seemed intent on making it all up before the first turn. He flew past the pack three or four wide, and caught the lead about a sixteenth before the turn.
He was flying. :23 and change for the first quarter, which I hated in this class and at this distance. What is he doing? He's going too fast. Not only that, but turf routes are usually won by the patient. I've seen it too many times where a seemingly blistering pacesetter looks nearly invicible rounding the final turn, only to go from first to worst as the field gains and passes in the stretch.
But Major Parker was out there, up front, and thankfully was getting some pressure from Freddie Mata on Quite The Guy. Freddie brought his horse up to the outside of Major Parker (ridden by some dude named Castillo), and I hoped Major Parker's competitive streak would kick in - not that his past performances indicated he had any sort of competitive streak at all. Still, I was ready based on those early fractions to write that $8 off into the ether. He was going too fast, the rest of the pack was only a couple lengths behind, and there was no way this lead was sustainable, even with competition finally challenging to the outside.
Wrong.
Major Parker dueled with Quite The Guy from the half pole, four and a half furlongs from the wire. The two put three lengths, then four between the lead and the pack, which gave me hope.
Around the final turn, and somehow the pack just wasn't gaining on the leaders. Quite The Guy finally got his head out front with about a furlong and a half to go, and I was resigned to taking what would be a pretty nice payout in the place pool. But then somehow Major Parker found a burst. He lurched out front, and got about half his body out in front of Quite The Guy before feinting just a bit to the outside. Quite The Guy got a little spooked and bounced a step or two out, which probably cost him whatever forward momentum he may have had left. Major Parker popped out a length and then another half, continuing his diagonal motion to the outside. Quite The Guy had nothing left, the pack was far enough behind to not threaten, and Major Parker went from tight on the rail at the top of the stretch to a barely-controlled five wide at the wire, crossing first.
Of course, they made me sweat it out. The little deke Major Parker made that made Quite The Guy hop outside caused a Steward's Inquiry, which are the two scariest words possible when holding a potentially winning ticket. Thankfully, the inquiry passed quickly and they didn't take my horse down to the place, and I was $414 richer. I don't know if I've ever made more on a single race, but I know I've never made more off a single horse. And what should have been the icing on the cake? I ignored the software's next pick, which was a just warmer than lukewarm endorsement of a 28-1 horse I hated - who ended up crossing in first and paying almost $60. Great day could have been spectacular, but I'll live.
