Tampa Bay Downs Picks for Today
Published by BG on Thursday, January 05, 2006 at 8:07 AM.
Tampa Bay Downs Picks for Today
· Race 1 - #4 Bronx Cheer stepped up off an October win, ran second to a much classier horse than any of these today last out and hung a solid speed rating. I'd play at 2/1 or better.
· Race 2 - With no real pressure to the pace, #2 Preceptor should get out to the front. Good signs with the step up in class and I like the bullet workout on 12/23. Probably ready for this spot. Play at 5/2 or better. #8 Bluff can close when asked, but should need a hotter pace which looks unlikely. I do like this horse at 5/1 or better (meaning higher), but I don't think that'll happen.
· Race 5 - #1 Kisses For Kara shows solid closing ability, and despite near-paceless look to this race should come in for a share. I like that the trainer is dialing down the distance for her a little bit, makes sense for this one. Play at 7/2 or better. I like #8 Kickn Chickn a bit here too, despite some oddly erratic choices by the trainer recently. I like Bernal onboard and the second off layoff angle for some improvement, and that this horse may go up and challenge for the lead early. Good play at 9/2 or better.
· Race 6 - Plenty to like here in a competitive AOC race. #1 Sacred Feather has raced at Churchill, which I like, and lost her last out to an unpressured pacesetter who ran away with the race - but hung a career-best 81 Beyer in the place at this track/class/distance. Solid workouts, steady improvement, and should love the pace scenario without a speedster up front. Tough to like a short price on this one with a lot of competition, but I'd play at 5/2 or better. #3 Ashley and I has the second off layoff angle (which I love) and could bounce a Beyer spike to the mid 70s, which would be competitive here. 5/1 or better? #4 A Different Tune gets hot jockey Lezcano onboard, the second off angle and hung a career-best Beyer last out. Great workouts in late Nov/early Dec and is really ready to strike here. Play this one at 7/2 or better for sure. #6 Buck Spender had a huge workout on 12/30, which should sharpen her speed for this sprint. Wouldn't surprise if she wakes up and grabs the lead and maybe even goes wire-to-wire. That being said, she laid a big egg last time coming off a good workout. 6/1 or better only. And #9 Cacchinated could be a longshot above 10/1 worth watching.
· Race 7 - #6 Montecastillo needs only a marginally average performance in this spot. Great play at or around 2/1. #7 On The Fan, should those odds float up towards 10/1, could be worth looking at. Steer clear of #8 Tactical De Naskra, totally overrated in this spot.
· Race 8 - #7 Davids Expectation needs only an average Beyer to win here, and I expect that will happen. Gets that second off layoff angle I dig, and has a history of running in stiffer competition than this. Like this one at 6/5 or better. #1 Great Plains has great recent Beyers, and I really dig that the trainer reclaimed this horse one race after another trainer claimed him, even paying a $4K premium to do so. This is a little bit of an ambitious class jump, but he could score. 9/2 or better.
· Race 9 - I'm really torn on #7 Chispazo. I love the unpressured pace he's likely to set, and he's on his second off which could mean a nice performance spike. Has a good history running this distance, and his best will be plenty. I think he might end up close to 5/1 on the board due to the scary-ass trainer/jockey connection, which might be the worst connection on today's card. I'd play him at 5/1. #2 Andiamo is interesting and due for a Beyer spike. He was running over his head in class, but this should now be the right spot and the right pace scenario for this horse. Great workouts lately, but he'll probably be overbet. Like him at 7/2 or better. #1 County Trial has always shown a Beyer spike in his second off layoff, which is where he is coming in today. He's a stalker and will enjoy not having to chase a rabbit out front too. He's only ran this distance on the turf before, which I don't like much, but seems capable of striking in this spot too. 3/1 on the Morning Line, I'd play at 9/2 or better.
· Race 1 - #4 Bronx Cheer stepped up off an October win, ran second to a much classier horse than any of these today last out and hung a solid speed rating. I'd play at 2/1 or better.
· Race 2 - With no real pressure to the pace, #2 Preceptor should get out to the front. Good signs with the step up in class and I like the bullet workout on 12/23. Probably ready for this spot. Play at 5/2 or better. #8 Bluff can close when asked, but should need a hotter pace which looks unlikely. I do like this horse at 5/1 or better (meaning higher), but I don't think that'll happen.
· Race 5 - #1 Kisses For Kara shows solid closing ability, and despite near-paceless look to this race should come in for a share. I like that the trainer is dialing down the distance for her a little bit, makes sense for this one. Play at 7/2 or better. I like #8 Kickn Chickn a bit here too, despite some oddly erratic choices by the trainer recently. I like Bernal onboard and the second off layoff angle for some improvement, and that this horse may go up and challenge for the lead early. Good play at 9/2 or better.
· Race 6 - Plenty to like here in a competitive AOC race. #1 Sacred Feather has raced at Churchill, which I like, and lost her last out to an unpressured pacesetter who ran away with the race - but hung a career-best 81 Beyer in the place at this track/class/distance. Solid workouts, steady improvement, and should love the pace scenario without a speedster up front. Tough to like a short price on this one with a lot of competition, but I'd play at 5/2 or better. #3 Ashley and I has the second off layoff angle (which I love) and could bounce a Beyer spike to the mid 70s, which would be competitive here. 5/1 or better? #4 A Different Tune gets hot jockey Lezcano onboard, the second off angle and hung a career-best Beyer last out. Great workouts in late Nov/early Dec and is really ready to strike here. Play this one at 7/2 or better for sure. #6 Buck Spender had a huge workout on 12/30, which should sharpen her speed for this sprint. Wouldn't surprise if she wakes up and grabs the lead and maybe even goes wire-to-wire. That being said, she laid a big egg last time coming off a good workout. 6/1 or better only. And #9 Cacchinated could be a longshot above 10/1 worth watching.
· Race 7 - #6 Montecastillo needs only a marginally average performance in this spot. Great play at or around 2/1. #7 On The Fan, should those odds float up towards 10/1, could be worth looking at. Steer clear of #8 Tactical De Naskra, totally overrated in this spot.
· Race 8 - #7 Davids Expectation needs only an average Beyer to win here, and I expect that will happen. Gets that second off layoff angle I dig, and has a history of running in stiffer competition than this. Like this one at 6/5 or better. #1 Great Plains has great recent Beyers, and I really dig that the trainer reclaimed this horse one race after another trainer claimed him, even paying a $4K premium to do so. This is a little bit of an ambitious class jump, but he could score. 9/2 or better.
· Race 9 - I'm really torn on #7 Chispazo. I love the unpressured pace he's likely to set, and he's on his second off which could mean a nice performance spike. Has a good history running this distance, and his best will be plenty. I think he might end up close to 5/1 on the board due to the scary-ass trainer/jockey connection, which might be the worst connection on today's card. I'd play him at 5/1. #2 Andiamo is interesting and due for a Beyer spike. He was running over his head in class, but this should now be the right spot and the right pace scenario for this horse. Great workouts lately, but he'll probably be overbet. Like him at 7/2 or better. #1 County Trial has always shown a Beyer spike in his second off layoff, which is where he is coming in today. He's a stalker and will enjoy not having to chase a rabbit out front too. He's only ran this distance on the turf before, which I don't like much, but seems capable of striking in this spot too. 3/1 on the Morning Line, I'd play at 9/2 or better.
