Santa Anita Saturday 2/4/06
Published by BG on Saturday, February 04, 2006 at 8:04 AM.
Santa Anita Saturday 2/4/06
I had the benefit of working with an early edition of the DRF, this one featuring no morning lines. Instead of looking at someone else's idea of odds, I made my own. I was scary close to all my choices in race 2, but there's some plays here to be made if you want to buy into my picks. By the way, partly cloudy in Arcadia, CA. No rain.
1) #5 Kiss The Flame - D.Wayne Lukas, blinkers on. Hot workout on 1/29 preceded by a 4F workout to build stamina. I like her at 7/2.
2) #3 Quinton's Relaunch features P.Valenzuela on a pressing stalker. Mike Mitchell is 31% with running horses first out of his barn, and I like the workouts too. 4/1 is my line. #4 Chandtrue hasn't won since 2004, but the class drop will help some. What's up with the last out on turf? Is the trainer darkening his form looking for a score? 8/1. #6 Pure As Gold has so many things to love. First off claim to Mitchell barn (28%), workouts show Dec/early Jan bullets @ 4F, then two very solid 5F runs to build stamina. He gets Tyler Baze aboard. 5/2. (Paid $5.80) #7 Accountable Event is a deep closer in a sprint. Will he get the hot pace he needs? Hell, even a mild regression gives this horse a legit shot. 3/1. #9 Persistent ran huge last out in Dec with a +16 lifetime Beyer spike. Trainer shut him down for workouts, which I respect a ton. The horse responded well, nice mix of speed/stamina on the tabs and even though this is a step up in class, I think this horse is live @ 8/1.
3) Two horse race - #1 Sky Diving is from the Baffert barn and got a huge effort last out, but it took a distance/class/circuit drop to do it. Still, early speed on the post and his workouts are all plusses. 5/2. #6 Bob and John should win this easily. He's a Baffert horse too, with Espinoza aboard. Should get the right stalking trip, but the odds aren't likely to be good. Play at 1/1. (Paid $2.80 - #1 scratched)
4) #4 Enchanted Nymph has a lackluster jock/trainer combo, but a return to average puts her in the money. Play at 6/1. #10 Rose N Bloom gets P.Val and a December bullet to her credit. Since then, mostly distance/stamina work. First timer on the track, I'm thinking 5/1 is fair. #13 Dee's a Legend should grab the lead, and recent performance in routes suggests she can and will hold her speed. Ugly last out, I'll throw that race out the window. 3/1. (Paid $10.60)
5) #1 Horse B With You and #1A Heckuva Rush are interesting, but only above 5/1. I don't think that's likely. #4 Frosty Moments hung a career best after a five month layoff for Cerin, and it was a logical step with the quality of his workouts. I like the stalk trip, the second off angle, and the fact he won his last. 7/2. #6 Shaperelli is a stalker getting a significant weight break to his last few. Hard to judge foreigners, especially with merely adequate workouts. 5/1. #7 Harriet Lane has much to love. Good workouts, good recent races, dialing down to 6F with established pace in routes. Trainer knows what he's doing here. 2/1. (Paid $7.80)
6) Another two horse option here. #9 Neutrality has the lifetime Beyer advantage and a shot at the pace. 2nd off angle is nice. 2/1. #3 Walkonkaydeeavenue gets Tyler Baze, has posted consistent figs, and figures to be up on or pressing the pace. 5/2.
7) I didn't do a ton of handicapping for this one, but my money will be on #11 High Limit. P.Val on a pacesetter from the Frankel barn? Yes, please. 3/1. (Paid $8.80) I also like #5 Dixie Meister as an interesting possibility. Asmussen grabbed him recently and took the place in a GII. He's been working well around and since that effort and is very capable of an improve here. 9/2.
8) #3 Indian Dreamin would need to step up, and that's not out of the question. 6/1. I like #4 Fantasmin, who gets Kent Desormeaux and a trainer who knows turf racing. Last out was very solid, this is a marginal step down. #5 Storm Mate beat #4 by a neck in their last, and Canani is 44% second off layoffs and 30% after a win last out. 5/2. #6 Common Trust has stalkability, and gets hot jock Garrett Gomez in mount. Hung a career-best last out, and has worked solidly since. Sise is 30% shutting a horse down for 30-60 days, and I give this option bonus points for frequent workouts since. 5/2. #8 My Dream is intriguing, as her workouts lately are decent. Still... 10/1.
9) #1 Shooter's Touch gets Tyler Baze on the rail as a pacesetter. That's good, right? The trainer's been focusing on stamina, which will help. 3/1. #2 Simon Pure is a Lukas horse, but has three bullets to her credit as a first time starter. Bought at auction for $665K in 2004, so you know the bloodlines are likely in place. 6/1. #10 Record has an enormous Beyer advantage, is capable of stalking close, and has Baffert/Espinoza connex. That's plenty to talk me into EVEN MONEY. (Paid $3.60)
10) Eh, maybe later...
Sunday Morning Update - Assuming you only played my favorites from each of the first nine, $18 would have turned into $39.40. I'm especially proud of how race five turned out, that wasn't the easiest one in the world to handicap, and the morning line on my winner was something like 6/1. She was bet down to 5/2 by post, but I had her on my list at 2/1 anyway so that's value in my eyes. Sadly, I got my ass kicked all day yesterday and quit betting after the sixth. I had a lot of money on both those horses I had picked, and neither factored. Down about $110 for the day, $30 of which I made back at the tables later...
I had the benefit of working with an early edition of the DRF, this one featuring no morning lines. Instead of looking at someone else's idea of odds, I made my own. I was scary close to all my choices in race 2, but there's some plays here to be made if you want to buy into my picks. By the way, partly cloudy in Arcadia, CA. No rain.
1) #5 Kiss The Flame - D.Wayne Lukas, blinkers on. Hot workout on 1/29 preceded by a 4F workout to build stamina. I like her at 7/2.
2) #3 Quinton's Relaunch features P.Valenzuela on a pressing stalker. Mike Mitchell is 31% with running horses first out of his barn, and I like the workouts too. 4/1 is my line. #4 Chandtrue hasn't won since 2004, but the class drop will help some. What's up with the last out on turf? Is the trainer darkening his form looking for a score? 8/1. #6 Pure As Gold has so many things to love. First off claim to Mitchell barn (28%), workouts show Dec/early Jan bullets @ 4F, then two very solid 5F runs to build stamina. He gets Tyler Baze aboard. 5/2. (Paid $5.80) #7 Accountable Event is a deep closer in a sprint. Will he get the hot pace he needs? Hell, even a mild regression gives this horse a legit shot. 3/1. #9 Persistent ran huge last out in Dec with a +16 lifetime Beyer spike. Trainer shut him down for workouts, which I respect a ton. The horse responded well, nice mix of speed/stamina on the tabs and even though this is a step up in class, I think this horse is live @ 8/1.
3) Two horse race - #1 Sky Diving is from the Baffert barn and got a huge effort last out, but it took a distance/class/circuit drop to do it. Still, early speed on the post and his workouts are all plusses. 5/2. #6 Bob and John should win this easily. He's a Baffert horse too, with Espinoza aboard. Should get the right stalking trip, but the odds aren't likely to be good. Play at 1/1. (Paid $2.80 - #1 scratched)
4) #4 Enchanted Nymph has a lackluster jock/trainer combo, but a return to average puts her in the money. Play at 6/1. #10 Rose N Bloom gets P.Val and a December bullet to her credit. Since then, mostly distance/stamina work. First timer on the track, I'm thinking 5/1 is fair. #13 Dee's a Legend should grab the lead, and recent performance in routes suggests she can and will hold her speed. Ugly last out, I'll throw that race out the window. 3/1. (Paid $10.60)
5) #1 Horse B With You and #1A Heckuva Rush are interesting, but only above 5/1. I don't think that's likely. #4 Frosty Moments hung a career best after a five month layoff for Cerin, and it was a logical step with the quality of his workouts. I like the stalk trip, the second off angle, and the fact he won his last. 7/2. #6 Shaperelli is a stalker getting a significant weight break to his last few. Hard to judge foreigners, especially with merely adequate workouts. 5/1. #7 Harriet Lane has much to love. Good workouts, good recent races, dialing down to 6F with established pace in routes. Trainer knows what he's doing here. 2/1. (Paid $7.80)
6) Another two horse option here. #9 Neutrality has the lifetime Beyer advantage and a shot at the pace. 2nd off angle is nice. 2/1. #3 Walkonkaydeeavenue gets Tyler Baze, has posted consistent figs, and figures to be up on or pressing the pace. 5/2.
7) I didn't do a ton of handicapping for this one, but my money will be on #11 High Limit. P.Val on a pacesetter from the Frankel barn? Yes, please. 3/1. (Paid $8.80) I also like #5 Dixie Meister as an interesting possibility. Asmussen grabbed him recently and took the place in a GII. He's been working well around and since that effort and is very capable of an improve here. 9/2.
8) #3 Indian Dreamin would need to step up, and that's not out of the question. 6/1. I like #4 Fantasmin, who gets Kent Desormeaux and a trainer who knows turf racing. Last out was very solid, this is a marginal step down. #5 Storm Mate beat #4 by a neck in their last, and Canani is 44% second off layoffs and 30% after a win last out. 5/2. #6 Common Trust has stalkability, and gets hot jock Garrett Gomez in mount. Hung a career-best last out, and has worked solidly since. Sise is 30% shutting a horse down for 30-60 days, and I give this option bonus points for frequent workouts since. 5/2. #8 My Dream is intriguing, as her workouts lately are decent. Still... 10/1.
9) #1 Shooter's Touch gets Tyler Baze on the rail as a pacesetter. That's good, right? The trainer's been focusing on stamina, which will help. 3/1. #2 Simon Pure is a Lukas horse, but has three bullets to her credit as a first time starter. Bought at auction for $665K in 2004, so you know the bloodlines are likely in place. 6/1. #10 Record has an enormous Beyer advantage, is capable of stalking close, and has Baffert/Espinoza connex. That's plenty to talk me into EVEN MONEY. (Paid $3.60)
10) Eh, maybe later...
Sunday Morning Update - Assuming you only played my favorites from each of the first nine, $18 would have turned into $39.40. I'm especially proud of how race five turned out, that wasn't the easiest one in the world to handicap, and the morning line on my winner was something like 6/1. She was bet down to 5/2 by post, but I had her on my list at 2/1 anyway so that's value in my eyes. Sadly, I got my ass kicked all day yesterday and quit betting after the sixth. I had a lot of money on both those horses I had picked, and neither factored. Down about $110 for the day, $30 of which I made back at the tables later...
