You’re Dead Money At The Track
Published by BG on Tuesday, February 21, 2006 at 7:53 AM.
You’re Dead Money At The Track
From August 2005, originally published at Oddjack
This weekend promises to be a huge one for horse racing, with no less than nine graded stakes and handicap races running across the country. The biggest are the Prioress Stakes at Belmont Park (Grade I) and the Hollywood Gold Cup (Grade I) at Hollywood Park. We’re still waiting to see the entries from Belmont for Saturday, but the Gold Cup has attracted big name horses such as Borrego, Limehouse, and Lava Man to the starting gate.
All this means you should rush right out and put a bunch of money down, right? Well, hold up a second. While there’s nothing wrong with the amateur horseplayer putting some cash down on the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont Stakes, and even Breeders’ Cup Day, the other big stakes races shouldn’t necessarily be a top consideration for anyone looking to find value at the horse track. Why?
Big stakes races are run on the big, brand-name tracks like Santa Anita and Churchill Downs. Smarter handicappers than you make it their life’s work to understand everything there is to know about these tracks. Things like speed bias and trainer form are not easily gleaned from ten minutes of looking at the past performances, so you’re already behind when you’re swimming in the deep end. Because horse racing’s pari-mutuel betting system is, by definition, a split-the-pool-between-the-winners environment, these expert handicappers are counting on your casual effort and dead money at the windows. Don’t give them the pleasure.
Here’s the thing with these graded stakes races: You’re usually going to see one easily identifiable superstar, a couple of worthy opponents, a horse or two that has a shot if a sniper takes out the better horses, and a couple of horses that shouldn’t be pulling carriages in Central Park, let alone hanging with the big boys. In other words, it’s easy to separate stakes horses by class. If you can see who the best horses are in the race, and it’s a short list, better handicappers than you have already bet the good horses down to a disagreeable price. When you’re not getting the odds to take the risk with your bet, it’s called an underlay. Think Afleet Alex in the Belmont. Would you have been happy with 2/5 odds in that race? He had to get lost on the backstretch not to win that race, and we still couldn’t bet him at that price.
We’re not professional handicappers, but if there’s one truth we can give you about going to the track, it’s this: you don’t have to bet on every race. That’s gambling, not handicapping (it’s fun too, but it’s hardly profitable). You want to look for opportunities to put your money down on horses whose odds are greater than the risk you’re assuming you’re undertaking by making the bet. That’s called overlay. Pick your spots, find a horse that can maybe cross the finish line ahead of the pack listed at 6/1, and make your wager.
We’ll help you out with some simple gambling and handicapping techniques for the track as the weeks roll by. But for now, do yourself a favor. Don’t get sucked into gambling on the big races happening this weekend just because they’re on TV. You’ll do a lot better if you put the same handicapping effort into a $20k Maiden Claimer at Bay Meadows or Allowance race out of Arlington Park.
From August 2005, originally published at Oddjack
This weekend promises to be a huge one for horse racing, with no less than nine graded stakes and handicap races running across the country. The biggest are the Prioress Stakes at Belmont Park (Grade I) and the Hollywood Gold Cup (Grade I) at Hollywood Park. We’re still waiting to see the entries from Belmont for Saturday, but the Gold Cup has attracted big name horses such as Borrego, Limehouse, and Lava Man to the starting gate.
All this means you should rush right out and put a bunch of money down, right? Well, hold up a second. While there’s nothing wrong with the amateur horseplayer putting some cash down on the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont Stakes, and even Breeders’ Cup Day, the other big stakes races shouldn’t necessarily be a top consideration for anyone looking to find value at the horse track. Why?
Big stakes races are run on the big, brand-name tracks like Santa Anita and Churchill Downs. Smarter handicappers than you make it their life’s work to understand everything there is to know about these tracks. Things like speed bias and trainer form are not easily gleaned from ten minutes of looking at the past performances, so you’re already behind when you’re swimming in the deep end. Because horse racing’s pari-mutuel betting system is, by definition, a split-the-pool-between-the-winners environment, these expert handicappers are counting on your casual effort and dead money at the windows. Don’t give them the pleasure.
Here’s the thing with these graded stakes races: You’re usually going to see one easily identifiable superstar, a couple of worthy opponents, a horse or two that has a shot if a sniper takes out the better horses, and a couple of horses that shouldn’t be pulling carriages in Central Park, let alone hanging with the big boys. In other words, it’s easy to separate stakes horses by class. If you can see who the best horses are in the race, and it’s a short list, better handicappers than you have already bet the good horses down to a disagreeable price. When you’re not getting the odds to take the risk with your bet, it’s called an underlay. Think Afleet Alex in the Belmont. Would you have been happy with 2/5 odds in that race? He had to get lost on the backstretch not to win that race, and we still couldn’t bet him at that price.
We’re not professional handicappers, but if there’s one truth we can give you about going to the track, it’s this: you don’t have to bet on every race. That’s gambling, not handicapping (it’s fun too, but it’s hardly profitable). You want to look for opportunities to put your money down on horses whose odds are greater than the risk you’re assuming you’re undertaking by making the bet. That’s called overlay. Pick your spots, find a horse that can maybe cross the finish line ahead of the pack listed at 6/1, and make your wager.
We’ll help you out with some simple gambling and handicapping techniques for the track as the weeks roll by. But for now, do yourself a favor. Don’t get sucked into gambling on the big races happening this weekend just because they’re on TV. You’ll do a lot better if you put the same handicapping effort into a $20k Maiden Claimer at Bay Meadows or Allowance race out of Arlington Park.
