Picks for Evangeline Downs, Friday 3/10/06
Published by BG on Friday, March 10, 2006 at 5:11 PM.
Picks for Evangeline Downs, Friday 3/10/06
Starting in race four...
FOUR
The pace is going to be key in this one. Look to CALL THE DIRECTOR, whose early speed is painfully obvious. Were he able to run mostly free with stragglers behind him, he might be worth a look. Problem is, LARRY AND PETE and FOWLER CREEK, and possibly even SIESTAVILLE are going to want to have a taste of the lead too. I think this race is going to feature three horses blowing themselves out on the lead unnecessarily, and a stalker or closer coming from the pack to wrestle the wire away from tiring leaders.
So who?
SIESTAVILLE is interesting. Thing is, from the points of call it looks like he has a predisposition to running up front, but I'm not so sure. He's had success from just off the pace and when you look at the quarter mile times he's posted in routes, they are very consistent through the first two calls. Theoretically, he's just running his race regardless of pace. I like that it didn't take him long to break out of N3L, and that he's 6-9 in the money lifetime at the distance. Trainer's returning 30% of his previous winners to the circle too. JUDO should rebound, but the question is, "how much?" I'd like him a lot better if he had been claimed by a better trainer. HEY BUBBAH ran at this class and distance a month ago at 7/5 odds as the favorite. Really? He hasn't won in two years since a 10K N2L, and this isn't an easier spot than that. Who knows what sort of price you're going to have to swallow on this inconsistent horse? One thing to like though is that he's the logical contender if you want to consider only deep closers. He'll be playable at a price. JUST WALTZ doesn't come off layoffs strong, get rid of him. MAURICE has taken 28 tries to break N3L, and note that he's seen half this field graduate out of races in that class in which he competed before he moved forward. I think the trainer switch could be a good sign, but this is an older horse and you have to wonder how much. A step forward might put him in contention in this pace scenario. LARRY AND PETE is dead in the water, and FOWLER CREEK might have a shot if Smith can hold him back. The trainer and jock are (something like) 25-39 in the money, but I'd probably suggest FC for exotics only. MID RIVER is a play if it's muddy. Otherwise, it's been a year since he ran impressively.
MY LINE
SIESTAVILLE - 5/2
JUDO - 6/1
HEY BUBBAH - 5/1
CALL THE DIRECTOR - 5/1
JUST WALTZ - 10/1
MAURICE - 5/1
LARRY AND PETE - 20/1
FOWLER CREEK - 9/2
MID RIVER - 3/1 if it's muddy, 7/1 if it's not.
FIVE
I only like two horses out of this pack. FLYIN ALFREDO, assuming he's on the rail, is going to be the one to beat. He's got that early speed that should allow him to get out front right away, and I think he holds it and wins. BUSTER'S ENTRY is interesting, but I can't fully back him in a sprint with that closing style. Not with Alfredo ahead of him, at least. Lay off of SOUPOFTHEDAY, he hasn't shown anything on dirt. Why they're not focusing his energies where he's been most successful is beyond me.
ALFREDO = 7/5
BUSTER = 5/2
SOUP = 8/1
SIX
I wish I could back FOCUSED TO WIN. I like her last an awful lot on the pace, but SKOOCH OVER is going to want a share of the lead after the first quarter, which could press them both to getting tired faster. I'm also just a little frightened of the inconsistency, and that she hasn't put IDA'S GIRL or FRAULEIN HELGA behind her at the wire yet. I'm thinking PARIS PRIDE is going to go off with a very deserving short price. I love the move to the Hassenpflug barn, I love what he's doing with dirt claimers, and I love that he's tossed 30% of his winners back to get their picture taken next out. She's been improving steadily, and won last out in $12500 N2L company. So what is she doing here? I'll bet you a dollar right now someone claims her out of this race, so why risk it? Is the horse sick or injured? I can't see the competition being an intimidating factor at $12500 N3L or even $10K N3L, so what's up? Wish I knew. FAPPY'S WALKER is an interesting choice. She's going to be content to come from off the pace, and I think this race sets up for a well timed late strike. She didn't take long to bust N2L company, and her first out in N3L was a narrow miss. I think the additional distance here will really help. SKOOCH OVER though... I really like the style of laying off for a quarter, challenging the leader, then holding the speed through the end. The last in 10K N2L was pretty solid despite what looks to be a pretty clumsy last quarter. I think she's got a lot of potential to strike here, and it should be interesting.
FOCUSED TO WIN = 5/1
SKOOCH OVER = 3/1
PARIS PRIDE = 8/5 (but I can't see playing this one below 5/2 - nagging feeling something is wrong and they're dumping her)
FAPPY'S WALKER = 3/1
SEVEN
I will take any price you want to give me north of even money on MORTIMER LOCKMAN. So many things to like. He's coming out of a classier circuit, he's posted strong speed figures, he's working out towards early speed (dig the bullet in December, liking the 4F work last week) and he's shown solid stalking pace and good consistency since day one. I love how the Beyer figs all line up real nice too. Oh, and don't forget the trainer percentages too. Every single thing says "WIN" to me.
Now, beware of METCALFE. Look at how he's been tossed aside (essentially) by two trainers in a row. Went from being a DWayne Lukas horse to being sent to the capable Albert Stall who had him for one race, cut his tag by over 50% and got rid of him. Then this no-name trainer cut THAT tag by over 50% after investing eight months trying to bring the horse around and dumped him too. The trainer that picked him up? 0-13 at the meet. Don't be suckered in by the Churchill/Keeneland Allowance race pedigree - this horse is dead.
VALID PATRIOT needs attention in exotics. I'd probaly toss WILD WILD LIES and WHISTLIN' OMEN into that mix if you were going to go beyond the exacta.
EIGHT
SHAWKLIT'S SOPO is interesting as the closest pace to the rail. You get the feeling looking at her history that she wants to sprint, but they've had her running miles for most of her career. I think she's got an excellent chance to have the lead right out the gate, and the ground saving trip to boot. I can't help but think that FLASHY ISLAND GIRL is due for an improve. She likes 5F, and is capable of jumping back into the mid sixties for her Beyer fig at any time. Oddly, this horse broke her maiden at 5YO in a quarterhorse sprint. I didn't think they let thoroughbreds do that. FORTY BABES last race didn't look impressive, as she went off as the morning line favorite (eighth time out of 14 career starts that's happened) and only managed to catch up for third. That being said, she was possibly hung out wide by virtue of starting out of the tenth gate, with a 5F race hitting the turn rather quickly. I think she wants 6 or 6.5F. She's going to go off too skinny again, and I can't back this horse short. WILD BERTIE looked to be a bounce candidate going into her last, and did regress - but really only to near her peak capabilities. I like that she'll want to jump out early, I like her efforts in better circuits than this, and I like her chances here. The <10 day turnaround is intriguing too. Shows a lot of confidence from the trainer. FUTURE JUSTICE is going to be an interesting horse to watch the oddsline on. I think she's going to come off last out's performance even better, and a return to spring/summer's form would be enough to contend here. I can't see playing her too thin, but the chances you might see a solid price are there. LAU MOR'S GLITTER (I'm assuming) is going to be hurt a bit by the outside post. I also have a hard time backing any horse that took as long as she did to break her maiden. I can't see unrestricted $15K claiming as a good next logical step out of $10K N3L in this case. If you want to believe she's rounding into form, be my guest. I just don't think the ability is there.
SHAWKLIT'S SOPO = 9/2 (I like a play on her above this number quite a bit)
FLASHY ISLAND GIRL = 5/1
FORTY BABES = 4/1
WILD BERTIE = 2/1
FUTURE JUSTICE = 3/1
LA MOR'S GLITTER = 5/1
NINE
CHIEF WHAT IT IS has the best Beyers in the field, and gets the rail trip. I like him in this spot a lot as a dark horse you're going to get a real nice price on. I'm figuring he'll be sitting there in the 4/1 neighborhood at post, which will be quite generous. The Chief deserves a play at 2/1.
LAKE MAC MAC could replicate early October's form and look solid here. Unfortunately, he's been a little out of form since. I do like the 12/31 race with Lawyer Ron as the winner. I think finishing fourth to that horse brings no shame. Then again, the field was five.
HEMI POWER - if the pattern holds, he'll follow his seventh place finish with a win. Do you bet on symmetry?
DIRECT SPLASH has the speed figs to be a logical contender, and maybe (just maybe) those last two out were harder races than they looked. Hell, if you're stepping out of that 1/1/06 ALW race with that past performance chart and into a stakes at 22-1? Yeah, probably pretty difficult field. I like the improvement, I like that he's faced tough runners... Maybe worth a play at 3/1.
UPSTREAM is a Steve Asmussen trainee that followed a nice pattern of workouts with a very solid fight in a $125K stakes last out. Last four races he was the post time favorite, and hasn't regressed significantly in any of his efforts. No progression either, but the horse is still young and learning. 5/2, based on a thought he'll come out swinging this time.
VOODOO GOLD has won a ton of money and showed some good early speed in his young career. I like that Carmouche is back onboard, and Norman Cole is a hell of a good trainer. Outside post won't help, but I'm not sure it hurts significantly either. He's going to be your short price on the board, I'd play north of 8/5. There's too much other talent here to play him lower.
Good luck to CJ, live at trackside at EvD tonight.
Starting in race four...
FOUR
The pace is going to be key in this one. Look to CALL THE DIRECTOR, whose early speed is painfully obvious. Were he able to run mostly free with stragglers behind him, he might be worth a look. Problem is, LARRY AND PETE and FOWLER CREEK, and possibly even SIESTAVILLE are going to want to have a taste of the lead too. I think this race is going to feature three horses blowing themselves out on the lead unnecessarily, and a stalker or closer coming from the pack to wrestle the wire away from tiring leaders.
So who?
SIESTAVILLE is interesting. Thing is, from the points of call it looks like he has a predisposition to running up front, but I'm not so sure. He's had success from just off the pace and when you look at the quarter mile times he's posted in routes, they are very consistent through the first two calls. Theoretically, he's just running his race regardless of pace. I like that it didn't take him long to break out of N3L, and that he's 6-9 in the money lifetime at the distance. Trainer's returning 30% of his previous winners to the circle too. JUDO should rebound, but the question is, "how much?" I'd like him a lot better if he had been claimed by a better trainer. HEY BUBBAH ran at this class and distance a month ago at 7/5 odds as the favorite. Really? He hasn't won in two years since a 10K N2L, and this isn't an easier spot than that. Who knows what sort of price you're going to have to swallow on this inconsistent horse? One thing to like though is that he's the logical contender if you want to consider only deep closers. He'll be playable at a price. JUST WALTZ doesn't come off layoffs strong, get rid of him. MAURICE has taken 28 tries to break N3L, and note that he's seen half this field graduate out of races in that class in which he competed before he moved forward. I think the trainer switch could be a good sign, but this is an older horse and you have to wonder how much. A step forward might put him in contention in this pace scenario. LARRY AND PETE is dead in the water, and FOWLER CREEK might have a shot if Smith can hold him back. The trainer and jock are (something like) 25-39 in the money, but I'd probably suggest FC for exotics only. MID RIVER is a play if it's muddy. Otherwise, it's been a year since he ran impressively.
MY LINE
SIESTAVILLE - 5/2
JUDO - 6/1
HEY BUBBAH - 5/1
CALL THE DIRECTOR - 5/1
JUST WALTZ - 10/1
MAURICE - 5/1
LARRY AND PETE - 20/1
FOWLER CREEK - 9/2
MID RIVER - 3/1 if it's muddy, 7/1 if it's not.
FIVE
I only like two horses out of this pack. FLYIN ALFREDO, assuming he's on the rail, is going to be the one to beat. He's got that early speed that should allow him to get out front right away, and I think he holds it and wins. BUSTER'S ENTRY is interesting, but I can't fully back him in a sprint with that closing style. Not with Alfredo ahead of him, at least. Lay off of SOUPOFTHEDAY, he hasn't shown anything on dirt. Why they're not focusing his energies where he's been most successful is beyond me.
ALFREDO = 7/5
BUSTER = 5/2
SOUP = 8/1
SIX
I wish I could back FOCUSED TO WIN. I like her last an awful lot on the pace, but SKOOCH OVER is going to want a share of the lead after the first quarter, which could press them both to getting tired faster. I'm also just a little frightened of the inconsistency, and that she hasn't put IDA'S GIRL or FRAULEIN HELGA behind her at the wire yet. I'm thinking PARIS PRIDE is going to go off with a very deserving short price. I love the move to the Hassenpflug barn, I love what he's doing with dirt claimers, and I love that he's tossed 30% of his winners back to get their picture taken next out. She's been improving steadily, and won last out in $12500 N2L company. So what is she doing here? I'll bet you a dollar right now someone claims her out of this race, so why risk it? Is the horse sick or injured? I can't see the competition being an intimidating factor at $12500 N3L or even $10K N3L, so what's up? Wish I knew. FAPPY'S WALKER is an interesting choice. She's going to be content to come from off the pace, and I think this race sets up for a well timed late strike. She didn't take long to bust N2L company, and her first out in N3L was a narrow miss. I think the additional distance here will really help. SKOOCH OVER though... I really like the style of laying off for a quarter, challenging the leader, then holding the speed through the end. The last in 10K N2L was pretty solid despite what looks to be a pretty clumsy last quarter. I think she's got a lot of potential to strike here, and it should be interesting.
FOCUSED TO WIN = 5/1
SKOOCH OVER = 3/1
PARIS PRIDE = 8/5 (but I can't see playing this one below 5/2 - nagging feeling something is wrong and they're dumping her)
FAPPY'S WALKER = 3/1
SEVEN
I will take any price you want to give me north of even money on MORTIMER LOCKMAN. So many things to like. He's coming out of a classier circuit, he's posted strong speed figures, he's working out towards early speed (dig the bullet in December, liking the 4F work last week) and he's shown solid stalking pace and good consistency since day one. I love how the Beyer figs all line up real nice too. Oh, and don't forget the trainer percentages too. Every single thing says "WIN" to me.
Now, beware of METCALFE. Look at how he's been tossed aside (essentially) by two trainers in a row. Went from being a DWayne Lukas horse to being sent to the capable Albert Stall who had him for one race, cut his tag by over 50% and got rid of him. Then this no-name trainer cut THAT tag by over 50% after investing eight months trying to bring the horse around and dumped him too. The trainer that picked him up? 0-13 at the meet. Don't be suckered in by the Churchill/Keeneland Allowance race pedigree - this horse is dead.
VALID PATRIOT needs attention in exotics. I'd probaly toss WILD WILD LIES and WHISTLIN' OMEN into that mix if you were going to go beyond the exacta.
EIGHT
SHAWKLIT'S SOPO is interesting as the closest pace to the rail. You get the feeling looking at her history that she wants to sprint, but they've had her running miles for most of her career. I think she's got an excellent chance to have the lead right out the gate, and the ground saving trip to boot. I can't help but think that FLASHY ISLAND GIRL is due for an improve. She likes 5F, and is capable of jumping back into the mid sixties for her Beyer fig at any time. Oddly, this horse broke her maiden at 5YO in a quarterhorse sprint. I didn't think they let thoroughbreds do that. FORTY BABES last race didn't look impressive, as she went off as the morning line favorite (eighth time out of 14 career starts that's happened) and only managed to catch up for third. That being said, she was possibly hung out wide by virtue of starting out of the tenth gate, with a 5F race hitting the turn rather quickly. I think she wants 6 or 6.5F. She's going to go off too skinny again, and I can't back this horse short. WILD BERTIE looked to be a bounce candidate going into her last, and did regress - but really only to near her peak capabilities. I like that she'll want to jump out early, I like her efforts in better circuits than this, and I like her chances here. The <10 day turnaround is intriguing too. Shows a lot of confidence from the trainer. FUTURE JUSTICE is going to be an interesting horse to watch the oddsline on. I think she's going to come off last out's performance even better, and a return to spring/summer's form would be enough to contend here. I can't see playing her too thin, but the chances you might see a solid price are there. LAU MOR'S GLITTER (I'm assuming) is going to be hurt a bit by the outside post. I also have a hard time backing any horse that took as long as she did to break her maiden. I can't see unrestricted $15K claiming as a good next logical step out of $10K N3L in this case. If you want to believe she's rounding into form, be my guest. I just don't think the ability is there.
SHAWKLIT'S SOPO = 9/2 (I like a play on her above this number quite a bit)
FLASHY ISLAND GIRL = 5/1
FORTY BABES = 4/1
WILD BERTIE = 2/1
FUTURE JUSTICE = 3/1
LA MOR'S GLITTER = 5/1
NINE
CHIEF WHAT IT IS has the best Beyers in the field, and gets the rail trip. I like him in this spot a lot as a dark horse you're going to get a real nice price on. I'm figuring he'll be sitting there in the 4/1 neighborhood at post, which will be quite generous. The Chief deserves a play at 2/1.
LAKE MAC MAC could replicate early October's form and look solid here. Unfortunately, he's been a little out of form since. I do like the 12/31 race with Lawyer Ron as the winner. I think finishing fourth to that horse brings no shame. Then again, the field was five.
HEMI POWER - if the pattern holds, he'll follow his seventh place finish with a win. Do you bet on symmetry?
DIRECT SPLASH has the speed figs to be a logical contender, and maybe (just maybe) those last two out were harder races than they looked. Hell, if you're stepping out of that 1/1/06 ALW race with that past performance chart and into a stakes at 22-1? Yeah, probably pretty difficult field. I like the improvement, I like that he's faced tough runners... Maybe worth a play at 3/1.
UPSTREAM is a Steve Asmussen trainee that followed a nice pattern of workouts with a very solid fight in a $125K stakes last out. Last four races he was the post time favorite, and hasn't regressed significantly in any of his efforts. No progression either, but the horse is still young and learning. 5/2, based on a thought he'll come out swinging this time.
VOODOO GOLD has won a ton of money and showed some good early speed in his young career. I like that Carmouche is back onboard, and Norman Cole is a hell of a good trainer. Outside post won't help, but I'm not sure it hurts significantly either. He's going to be your short price on the board, I'd play north of 8/5. There's too much other talent here to play him lower.
Good luck to CJ, live at trackside at EvD tonight.
