Turfway, Oak Tree, and Why I Love This Game
Published by BG on Friday, September 30, 2005 at 9:54 AM.
Turfway, Oak Tree, and Why I Love This Game
Now that Frist has managed to sneak the Internet Gambling Act into a port security bill, now is as good a time as any to jump off the poker bandwagon and come on over to play the horses with me. It's legal in most states, and you can do it from the comfort of your living room with a YouBet or TVG account - just like poker.
Just promise me you'll ask for my bonus code before signing up for YouBet, alright?
We'll start with Turfway, but the only one I want to get into any significant detail with is race two. This maiden race for two year old fillies is a perfect example as to why I love this stupid game.
TURFWAY 1 - I like #6 English Dancer at 2/1 (morning line 6/1). I think her form is darkened by turf races and off tracks, and he looks to be in a good spot here. #1 D'Court's Speed and #7 Erdiston are worth looks, but at no skinnier than 5/2 and 7/2 respectively.
TURFWAY 2 - My favorite thing about handicapping is using incomplete information to form an opinion that rewards both your ego and your pocketbook when you're right. With different kinds of races you'll use different filters to process the information. With two year old maidens without a great deal of history behind them, it's all about angles. You take what's worked in the past, find horses that fit the template, and hope you find one that stands out.
Good luck with this group. I've got five angles I look for with lightly/unraced maidens: Experience, class, last pace, improvement and connections. Unfortunately, I can fit four horses into these five angles.
#3 Perfeck Connect is the experience play. 8/1 on the morning line, she's got a +10 Beyer advantage on the field and her trainer is 21% with second starters. A distinct Beyer advantage is a huge angle here, and you can usually count on a step up from race one to two.
#4 Rebalite is the "last pace" play. I look for horses in maiden races that look like they're learning, and I've had a lot of success looking for one indicator of improvement in particular - did the horse go from a sluggish maiden race to actually leading or pressing the pace in her last? Rebalite was on the lead in her last through a half of 23/2 and 22/4, which isn't brisk but that should mean she controlled the pace and could/should respond well to another horse at her heels. She did finish in 29/3, which isn't great but she's learning. 12/1 on the morning line.
#7 Thunder and Belle is a class play who also has a last pace play angle as well. In a MSW49K (this is a lesser class of MSW22K) at Churchill last out she went 22 and 22 for her half, keeping presurre on the pacesetter who went wire-to-wire. The winner and another from this race went on to run in stakes company, so you know this is competitive company. Her ability to push the pace in a race like her last shows that she's competitive there, and probably as classy as any in this group. Oh, and she's 15/1 on the morning line.
#12 Cleverdale is my connections play. A first time starter, Pletcher hits with 22% of these and 29% of two year olds overall. Bejarano gets the ride, and his injury earlier this year combined with the ascendance of Leparoux has people forgetting what a great young rider he really is. Cleverdale's Tomlinson breeding capability figure for this distance is also a dominating factor, which adds a little class play angle as well. This is your likely favorite, and Pletcher's hit 7-16 winners with unraced two year olds at Kentucky tracks who go off as the favorite over the last five years, and is 2-2 under the same conditions with Bejarano onboard. I'm just saying... She's 3/1.
So who do you play? Good question - I'll let you know when we get there, but I'm leaning very much towards the #7, who could jump out and grab control of this one early. It might be worth locking the #12 in first and scattering the rest underneath in an exacta, but I can't get behind a trifecta with so many unraced horses at the gate. Too many things could happen.
I've got four horses here to try and get behind, I just have to solidify my logic before post. God I love this game.
TURFWAY 3 - Tough race, but I like #6 Devil In Excess at 5/2, and #2 Bavarian Baron and #7 Back to Bernie both at 3/1. I think the numbers 3/5/8 could also threaten, but 6/2/7 are your top three.
TURFWAY 4 - #9 Base Commander should be played at 2/1 or higher, and #8 Frisk is worth a look at better than 7/2. Alternate Entry #14 Drink With The Devil might get in, and if so I'd play in the 4/1 neighborhood.
TURFWAY 5 - LONGSHOT ALERT - #7 Tidy Up (6/1 morning line, 2/1 my line) was a winner at the distance and on the surface (Polytrack, which many today don't have a history with) last out. Fahey is 23% in 2006 with a small barn, and the pressure is always on these small batch trainers to find spots for success for their horses. He's also hitting 27% winners with horses that run between 5/1 and 10/1 in sprints over the last five years. This horse is the pace, and is 2-2 winning over this surface.
I also like #3 Shark at 5/2 (my line) and #4 Louderfasterharder at 4/1 or better.
TURFWAY 6 - Looked for a closer or stalker here, and I'll grab #3 La Reason as my 9/5 favorite. She's got a 5/1 morning line, so this should be a good play. #7 Splendid Blended I've plugged in at 2/1, and #11 Soul Search is a closer with a shot to strike at or above 9/2 only. I'm also trying to figure out the alternate entry #13 Slew Peg, who set a track record two weeks ago here over a mile. The part I'm trying to figure out is why she's a 15/1 morning line shot. If she's north of 5/1, put a few bucks down. She won that mile going away.
TURFWAY 7 - Probably the hardest race I've ever handicapped, and I'm still flummoxed. #8 Likely is my favorite at 2/1, with #9 Changing Weather and #10 Island Warrior both at 3/1 on my line. #5 Ghosttrapper is next at 4/1, and I'll put a line of 5/1 on both #1 Four Sevens and #4 Reigning Court. I really have no idea what to think here, other than getting behind the idea of a pace collapse with Likely cleaning up the mess in the final furlong.
TURFWAY 8 - #2 Good Reward at 5/2, #1 Premium Tap at 3/1 and I'll set lines on #3 Ball Four and #6 Alumni Hall at 7/2. Play #7 Perfect Drift keyed in exactas and trifectas, but not in the winner's slot. He'll hit the board, but he won't win.
TURFWAY 9 - #12 U D Ghetto at 2/1 (10/1 morning line), but I'm second guessing myself. I like #8 Shermanesque at 3/1, which is where the morning line has him too.
TURFWAY 10 - #6 Kauai Calls 2/1, #8 Cherokee Sheik 5/2, #2 Natalicat at 3/1.
TURFWAY 11 - #4 Postitive Cat 6/5 (lock of the day for this card), #3 Snow Kid 5/2, #1 Conga 4/1.
TURFWAY 12 - Pass
OAK TREE 1 - If Turquoise and Gold doesn't win here, there's something wrong. 3/5 is my line, I'd be shocked if he's offering more than that.
OAK TREE 2 - Hello Fame 2/1. You'll probably get a better price than that here.
OAK TREE 3 - McNasty 5/2 (morning line 6/1), Totally Gone 7/2, Rising Rate 9/2.
OAK TREE 4 - Wait A While 8/5, who cleans up the pace duel. 7/2 on both Moscow Burning and the collapsing Dancing Edie (after the likely hot pace). Lock Three Degrees outside of the win spot in exotics.
OAK TREE 5 - The Tin Man is a mortal lock. He'll be unbettable here.
OAK TREE 6 - 6/5 on Jona's Prospector, who I love here. 5/2 for Joe On The Go.
OAK TREE 7 -
OAK TREE 8 -
OAK TREE 9 -
OAK TREE 10 -
Now that Frist has managed to sneak the Internet Gambling Act into a port security bill, now is as good a time as any to jump off the poker bandwagon and come on over to play the horses with me. It's legal in most states, and you can do it from the comfort of your living room with a YouBet or TVG account - just like poker.
Just promise me you'll ask for my bonus code before signing up for YouBet, alright?
We'll start with Turfway, but the only one I want to get into any significant detail with is race two. This maiden race for two year old fillies is a perfect example as to why I love this stupid game.
TURFWAY 1 - I like #6 English Dancer at 2/1 (morning line 6/1). I think her form is darkened by turf races and off tracks, and he looks to be in a good spot here. #1 D'Court's Speed and #7 Erdiston are worth looks, but at no skinnier than 5/2 and 7/2 respectively.
TURFWAY 2 - My favorite thing about handicapping is using incomplete information to form an opinion that rewards both your ego and your pocketbook when you're right. With different kinds of races you'll use different filters to process the information. With two year old maidens without a great deal of history behind them, it's all about angles. You take what's worked in the past, find horses that fit the template, and hope you find one that stands out.
Good luck with this group. I've got five angles I look for with lightly/unraced maidens: Experience, class, last pace, improvement and connections. Unfortunately, I can fit four horses into these five angles.
#3 Perfeck Connect is the experience play. 8/1 on the morning line, she's got a +10 Beyer advantage on the field and her trainer is 21% with second starters. A distinct Beyer advantage is a huge angle here, and you can usually count on a step up from race one to two.
#4 Rebalite is the "last pace" play. I look for horses in maiden races that look like they're learning, and I've had a lot of success looking for one indicator of improvement in particular - did the horse go from a sluggish maiden race to actually leading or pressing the pace in her last? Rebalite was on the lead in her last through a half of 23/2 and 22/4, which isn't brisk but that should mean she controlled the pace and could/should respond well to another horse at her heels. She did finish in 29/3, which isn't great but she's learning. 12/1 on the morning line.
#7 Thunder and Belle is a class play who also has a last pace play angle as well. In a MSW49K (this is a lesser class of MSW22K) at Churchill last out she went 22 and 22 for her half, keeping presurre on the pacesetter who went wire-to-wire. The winner and another from this race went on to run in stakes company, so you know this is competitive company. Her ability to push the pace in a race like her last shows that she's competitive there, and probably as classy as any in this group. Oh, and she's 15/1 on the morning line.
#12 Cleverdale is my connections play. A first time starter, Pletcher hits with 22% of these and 29% of two year olds overall. Bejarano gets the ride, and his injury earlier this year combined with the ascendance of Leparoux has people forgetting what a great young rider he really is. Cleverdale's Tomlinson breeding capability figure for this distance is also a dominating factor, which adds a little class play angle as well. This is your likely favorite, and Pletcher's hit 7-16 winners with unraced two year olds at Kentucky tracks who go off as the favorite over the last five years, and is 2-2 under the same conditions with Bejarano onboard. I'm just saying... She's 3/1.
So who do you play? Good question - I'll let you know when we get there, but I'm leaning very much towards the #7, who could jump out and grab control of this one early. It might be worth locking the #12 in first and scattering the rest underneath in an exacta, but I can't get behind a trifecta with so many unraced horses at the gate. Too many things could happen.
I've got four horses here to try and get behind, I just have to solidify my logic before post. God I love this game.
TURFWAY 3 - Tough race, but I like #6 Devil In Excess at 5/2, and #2 Bavarian Baron and #7 Back to Bernie both at 3/1. I think the numbers 3/5/8 could also threaten, but 6/2/7 are your top three.
TURFWAY 4 - #9 Base Commander should be played at 2/1 or higher, and #8 Frisk is worth a look at better than 7/2. Alternate Entry #14 Drink With The Devil might get in, and if so I'd play in the 4/1 neighborhood.
TURFWAY 5 - LONGSHOT ALERT - #7 Tidy Up (6/1 morning line, 2/1 my line) was a winner at the distance and on the surface (Polytrack, which many today don't have a history with) last out. Fahey is 23% in 2006 with a small barn, and the pressure is always on these small batch trainers to find spots for success for their horses. He's also hitting 27% winners with horses that run between 5/1 and 10/1 in sprints over the last five years. This horse is the pace, and is 2-2 winning over this surface.
I also like #3 Shark at 5/2 (my line) and #4 Louderfasterharder at 4/1 or better.
TURFWAY 6 - Looked for a closer or stalker here, and I'll grab #3 La Reason as my 9/5 favorite. She's got a 5/1 morning line, so this should be a good play. #7 Splendid Blended I've plugged in at 2/1, and #11 Soul Search is a closer with a shot to strike at or above 9/2 only. I'm also trying to figure out the alternate entry #13 Slew Peg, who set a track record two weeks ago here over a mile. The part I'm trying to figure out is why she's a 15/1 morning line shot. If she's north of 5/1, put a few bucks down. She won that mile going away.
TURFWAY 7 - Probably the hardest race I've ever handicapped, and I'm still flummoxed. #8 Likely is my favorite at 2/1, with #9 Changing Weather and #10 Island Warrior both at 3/1 on my line. #5 Ghosttrapper is next at 4/1, and I'll put a line of 5/1 on both #1 Four Sevens and #4 Reigning Court. I really have no idea what to think here, other than getting behind the idea of a pace collapse with Likely cleaning up the mess in the final furlong.
TURFWAY 8 - #2 Good Reward at 5/2, #1 Premium Tap at 3/1 and I'll set lines on #3 Ball Four and #6 Alumni Hall at 7/2. Play #7 Perfect Drift keyed in exactas and trifectas, but not in the winner's slot. He'll hit the board, but he won't win.
TURFWAY 9 - #12 U D Ghetto at 2/1 (10/1 morning line), but I'm second guessing myself. I like #8 Shermanesque at 3/1, which is where the morning line has him too.
TURFWAY 10 - #6 Kauai Calls 2/1, #8 Cherokee Sheik 5/2, #2 Natalicat at 3/1.
TURFWAY 11 - #4 Postitive Cat 6/5 (lock of the day for this card), #3 Snow Kid 5/2, #1 Conga 4/1.
TURFWAY 12 - Pass
OAK TREE 1 - If Turquoise and Gold doesn't win here, there's something wrong. 3/5 is my line, I'd be shocked if he's offering more than that.
OAK TREE 2 - Hello Fame 2/1. You'll probably get a better price than that here.
OAK TREE 3 - McNasty 5/2 (morning line 6/1), Totally Gone 7/2, Rising Rate 9/2.
OAK TREE 4 - Wait A While 8/5, who cleans up the pace duel. 7/2 on both Moscow Burning and the collapsing Dancing Edie (after the likely hot pace). Lock Three Degrees outside of the win spot in exotics.
OAK TREE 5 - The Tin Man is a mortal lock. He'll be unbettable here.
OAK TREE 6 - 6/5 on Jona's Prospector, who I love here. 5/2 for Joe On The Go.
OAK TREE 7 -
OAK TREE 8 -
OAK TREE 9 -
OAK TREE 10 -
