Santa Anita Saturday 2/4/06
Published by BG on Saturday, February 04, 2006 at 8:04 AM.
Santa Anita Saturday 2/4/06
I had the benefit of working with an early edition of the DRF, this one featuring no morning lines. Instead of looking at someone else's idea of odds, I made my own. I was scary close to all my choices in race 2, but there's some plays here to be made if you want to buy into my picks. By the way, partly cloudy in Arcadia, CA. No rain.
1) #5 Kiss The Flame - D.Wayne Lukas, blinkers on. Hot workout on 1/29 preceded by a 4F workout to build stamina. I like her at 7/2.
2) #3 Quinton's Relaunch features P.Valenzuela on a pressing stalker. Mike Mitchell is 31% with running horses first out of his barn, and I like the workouts too. 4/1 is my line. #4 Chandtrue hasn't won since 2004, but the class drop will help some. What's up with the last out on turf? Is the trainer darkening his form looking for a score? 8/1. #6 Pure As Gold has so many things to love. First off claim to Mitchell barn (28%), workouts show Dec/early Jan bullets @ 4F, then two very solid 5F runs to build stamina. He gets Tyler Baze aboard. 5/2. (Paid $5.80) #7 Accountable Event is a deep closer in a sprint. Will he get the hot pace he needs? Hell, even a mild regression gives this horse a legit shot. 3/1. #9 Persistent ran huge last out in Dec with a +16 lifetime Beyer spike. Trainer shut him down for workouts, which I respect a ton. The horse responded well, nice mix of speed/stamina on the tabs and even though this is a step up in class, I think this horse is live @ 8/1.
3) Two horse race - #1 Sky Diving is from the Baffert barn and got a huge effort last out, but it took a distance/class/circuit drop to do it. Still, early speed on the post and his workouts are all plusses. 5/2. #6 Bob and John should win this easily. He's a Baffert horse too, with Espinoza aboard. Should get the right stalking trip, but the odds aren't likely to be good. Play at 1/1. (Paid $2.80 - #1 scratched)
4) #4 Enchanted Nymph has a lackluster jock/trainer combo, but a return to average puts her in the money. Play at 6/1. #10 Rose N Bloom gets P.Val and a December bullet to her credit. Since then, mostly distance/stamina work. First timer on the track, I'm thinking 5/1 is fair. #13 Dee's a Legend should grab the lead, and recent performance in routes suggests she can and will hold her speed. Ugly last out, I'll throw that race out the window. 3/1. (Paid $10.60)
5) #1 Horse B With You and #1A Heckuva Rush are interesting, but only above 5/1. I don't think that's likely. #4 Frosty Moments hung a career best after a five month layoff for Cerin, and it was a logical step with the quality of his workouts. I like the stalk trip, the second off angle, and the fact he won his last. 7/2. #6 Shaperelli is a stalker getting a significant weight break to his last few. Hard to judge foreigners, especially with merely adequate workouts. 5/1. #7 Harriet Lane has much to love. Good workouts, good recent races, dialing down to 6F with established pace in routes. Trainer knows what he's doing here. 2/1. (Paid $7.80)
6) Another two horse option here. #9 Neutrality has the lifetime Beyer advantage and a shot at the pace. 2nd off angle is nice. 2/1. #3 Walkonkaydeeavenue gets Tyler Baze, has posted consistent figs, and figures to be up on or pressing the pace. 5/2.
7) I didn't do a ton of handicapping for this one, but my money will be on #11 High Limit. P.Val on a pacesetter from the Frankel barn? Yes, please. 3/1. (Paid $8.80) I also like #5 Dixie Meister as an interesting possibility. Asmussen grabbed him recently and took the place in a GII. He's been working well around and since that effort and is very capable of an improve here. 9/2.
8) #3 Indian Dreamin would need to step up, and that's not out of the question. 6/1. I like #4 Fantasmin, who gets Kent Desormeaux and a trainer who knows turf racing. Last out was very solid, this is a marginal step down. #5 Storm Mate beat #4 by a neck in their last, and Canani is 44% second off layoffs and 30% after a win last out. 5/2. #6 Common Trust has stalkability, and gets hot jock Garrett Gomez in mount. Hung a career-best last out, and has worked solidly since. Sise is 30% shutting a horse down for 30-60 days, and I give this option bonus points for frequent workouts since. 5/2. #8 My Dream is intriguing, as her workouts lately are decent. Still... 10/1.
9) #1 Shooter's Touch gets Tyler Baze on the rail as a pacesetter. That's good, right? The trainer's been focusing on stamina, which will help. 3/1. #2 Simon Pure is a Lukas horse, but has three bullets to her credit as a first time starter. Bought at auction for $665K in 2004, so you know the bloodlines are likely in place. 6/1. #10 Record has an enormous Beyer advantage, is capable of stalking close, and has Baffert/Espinoza connex. That's plenty to talk me into EVEN MONEY. (Paid $3.60)
10) Eh, maybe later...
Sunday Morning Update - Assuming you only played my favorites from each of the first nine, $18 would have turned into $39.40. I'm especially proud of how race five turned out, that wasn't the easiest one in the world to handicap, and the morning line on my winner was something like 6/1. She was bet down to 5/2 by post, but I had her on my list at 2/1 anyway so that's value in my eyes. Sadly, I got my ass kicked all day yesterday and quit betting after the sixth. I had a lot of money on both those horses I had picked, and neither factored. Down about $110 for the day, $30 of which I made back at the tables later...
I had the benefit of working with an early edition of the DRF, this one featuring no morning lines. Instead of looking at someone else's idea of odds, I made my own. I was scary close to all my choices in race 2, but there's some plays here to be made if you want to buy into my picks. By the way, partly cloudy in Arcadia, CA. No rain.
1) #5 Kiss The Flame - D.Wayne Lukas, blinkers on. Hot workout on 1/29 preceded by a 4F workout to build stamina. I like her at 7/2.
2) #3 Quinton's Relaunch features P.Valenzuela on a pressing stalker. Mike Mitchell is 31% with running horses first out of his barn, and I like the workouts too. 4/1 is my line. #4 Chandtrue hasn't won since 2004, but the class drop will help some. What's up with the last out on turf? Is the trainer darkening his form looking for a score? 8/1. #6 Pure As Gold has so many things to love. First off claim to Mitchell barn (28%), workouts show Dec/early Jan bullets @ 4F, then two very solid 5F runs to build stamina. He gets Tyler Baze aboard. 5/2. (Paid $5.80) #7 Accountable Event is a deep closer in a sprint. Will he get the hot pace he needs? Hell, even a mild regression gives this horse a legit shot. 3/1. #9 Persistent ran huge last out in Dec with a +16 lifetime Beyer spike. Trainer shut him down for workouts, which I respect a ton. The horse responded well, nice mix of speed/stamina on the tabs and even though this is a step up in class, I think this horse is live @ 8/1.
3) Two horse race - #1 Sky Diving is from the Baffert barn and got a huge effort last out, but it took a distance/class/circuit drop to do it. Still, early speed on the post and his workouts are all plusses. 5/2. #6 Bob and John should win this easily. He's a Baffert horse too, with Espinoza aboard. Should get the right stalking trip, but the odds aren't likely to be good. Play at 1/1. (Paid $2.80 - #1 scratched)
4) #4 Enchanted Nymph has a lackluster jock/trainer combo, but a return to average puts her in the money. Play at 6/1. #10 Rose N Bloom gets P.Val and a December bullet to her credit. Since then, mostly distance/stamina work. First timer on the track, I'm thinking 5/1 is fair. #13 Dee's a Legend should grab the lead, and recent performance in routes suggests she can and will hold her speed. Ugly last out, I'll throw that race out the window. 3/1. (Paid $10.60)
5) #1 Horse B With You and #1A Heckuva Rush are interesting, but only above 5/1. I don't think that's likely. #4 Frosty Moments hung a career best after a five month layoff for Cerin, and it was a logical step with the quality of his workouts. I like the stalk trip, the second off angle, and the fact he won his last. 7/2. #6 Shaperelli is a stalker getting a significant weight break to his last few. Hard to judge foreigners, especially with merely adequate workouts. 5/1. #7 Harriet Lane has much to love. Good workouts, good recent races, dialing down to 6F with established pace in routes. Trainer knows what he's doing here. 2/1. (Paid $7.80)
6) Another two horse option here. #9 Neutrality has the lifetime Beyer advantage and a shot at the pace. 2nd off angle is nice. 2/1. #3 Walkonkaydeeavenue gets Tyler Baze, has posted consistent figs, and figures to be up on or pressing the pace. 5/2.
7) I didn't do a ton of handicapping for this one, but my money will be on #11 High Limit. P.Val on a pacesetter from the Frankel barn? Yes, please. 3/1. (Paid $8.80) I also like #5 Dixie Meister as an interesting possibility. Asmussen grabbed him recently and took the place in a GII. He's been working well around and since that effort and is very capable of an improve here. 9/2.
8) #3 Indian Dreamin would need to step up, and that's not out of the question. 6/1. I like #4 Fantasmin, who gets Kent Desormeaux and a trainer who knows turf racing. Last out was very solid, this is a marginal step down. #5 Storm Mate beat #4 by a neck in their last, and Canani is 44% second off layoffs and 30% after a win last out. 5/2. #6 Common Trust has stalkability, and gets hot jock Garrett Gomez in mount. Hung a career-best last out, and has worked solidly since. Sise is 30% shutting a horse down for 30-60 days, and I give this option bonus points for frequent workouts since. 5/2. #8 My Dream is intriguing, as her workouts lately are decent. Still... 10/1.
9) #1 Shooter's Touch gets Tyler Baze on the rail as a pacesetter. That's good, right? The trainer's been focusing on stamina, which will help. 3/1. #2 Simon Pure is a Lukas horse, but has three bullets to her credit as a first time starter. Bought at auction for $665K in 2004, so you know the bloodlines are likely in place. 6/1. #10 Record has an enormous Beyer advantage, is capable of stalking close, and has Baffert/Espinoza connex. That's plenty to talk me into EVEN MONEY. (Paid $3.60)
10) Eh, maybe later...
Sunday Morning Update - Assuming you only played my favorites from each of the first nine, $18 would have turned into $39.40. I'm especially proud of how race five turned out, that wasn't the easiest one in the world to handicap, and the morning line on my winner was something like 6/1. She was bet down to 5/2 by post, but I had her on my list at 2/1 anyway so that's value in my eyes. Sadly, I got my ass kicked all day yesterday and quit betting after the sixth. I had a lot of money on both those horses I had picked, and neither factored. Down about $110 for the day, $30 of which I made back at the tables later...
Obligatory Saturday Horse Shit
Published by BG on at 7:05 AM.
Obligatory Saturday Horse Shit
That's what I get for not checking the weather... Tampa, FL got eight inches of rain yesterday, with the promise of more today. As a matter of fact, the storms were so bad that they cancelled the card. Gulfstream (Hallandale, FL) also got drenched, with expectations of heavy thunderstorms today too.
I suck at off-track handicapping. You've gotta know your weaknesses, and that's a big one for me. I'm likely to play a bit at Tampa anyway, but I may as well just light dollar bills on fire for what good it's going to do me. I may bet at Santa Anita, which kicks off in the 3PM EST neighborhood, and hopefully it ain't rainin' in SoCal today.
Anyway, some quick picks - For the love of god steer clear of these today:
TAMPA
1) #1 Aliflash (I like early speed in sprints on off tracks. This sounds dumb, but that's only based on the theory that horses running behind other horses don't like having mud kicked in their faces. No, I'm not kidding.)
2) #6 Tour a Lurah (Not much I like here, really. He's 9-16 in the money lifetime though)
3) #7 Secret Fantasy (Stalker in a route, improving. Trainer 25% returning a winner after a win)
4) #3 Preceptor (Unchallenged pace, best Beyers over last three, has improved his stamina)
5) Turf race likely to move to the sloppy-ass dirt. Ugh. Look at the "Also Eligible" list for clues.
6) #4 Act Natural (Last out sucked, previous three would be plenty here. No speed inside her either, should find a spot and settle up close)
7) Turf, see above
8) #10 Excellerant (No way you can bet against her here)
9) Turf
10) #8 Platinum Perfect (Ready to improve, has historically taken a step forward with 2nd off angle. I like #12 Ebony Breeze marginally better, but she'll go off close to even money. Here's your value.)
11) #1 La Rochelle (Flashed early speed in first and only race, comes out of classier circuit at Churchill. Solid workouts, should be up there on a fairly hot pace.)
That's what I get for not checking the weather... Tampa, FL got eight inches of rain yesterday, with the promise of more today. As a matter of fact, the storms were so bad that they cancelled the card. Gulfstream (Hallandale, FL) also got drenched, with expectations of heavy thunderstorms today too.
I suck at off-track handicapping. You've gotta know your weaknesses, and that's a big one for me. I'm likely to play a bit at Tampa anyway, but I may as well just light dollar bills on fire for what good it's going to do me. I may bet at Santa Anita, which kicks off in the 3PM EST neighborhood, and hopefully it ain't rainin' in SoCal today.
Anyway, some quick picks - For the love of god steer clear of these today:
TAMPA
1) #1 Aliflash (I like early speed in sprints on off tracks. This sounds dumb, but that's only based on the theory that horses running behind other horses don't like having mud kicked in their faces. No, I'm not kidding.)
2) #6 Tour a Lurah (Not much I like here, really. He's 9-16 in the money lifetime though)
3) #7 Secret Fantasy (Stalker in a route, improving. Trainer 25% returning a winner after a win)
4) #3 Preceptor (Unchallenged pace, best Beyers over last three, has improved his stamina)
5) Turf race likely to move to the sloppy-ass dirt. Ugh. Look at the "Also Eligible" list for clues.
6) #4 Act Natural (Last out sucked, previous three would be plenty here. No speed inside her either, should find a spot and settle up close)
7) Turf, see above
8) #10 Excellerant (No way you can bet against her here)
9) Turf
10) #8 Platinum Perfect (Ready to improve, has historically taken a step forward with 2nd off angle. I like #12 Ebony Breeze marginally better, but she'll go off close to even money. Here's your value.)
11) #1 La Rochelle (Flashed early speed in first and only race, comes out of classier circuit at Churchill. Solid workouts, should be up there on a fairly hot pace.)
Big Day
Published by BG on Sunday, January 29, 2006 at 8:05 AM.
Big Day
Started off with a miss, but hit a winner and the exacta in the second for net $39.40. From there, it all fell into place... I had $10 to win and $20 to place on the winner in the third (watch those place pools, I got a very agreeable price on that play) for $81 net, hit the winner in the sixth (but missed the tri by a NOSE) for net $14.40, the exacta in the eighth for $25.30 and then a $2 flier in the tenth turned into $121.60.
Net take for the Tampa card today = +$161.20. Very good day.
Started off with a miss, but hit a winner and the exacta in the second for net $39.40. From there, it all fell into place... I had $10 to win and $20 to place on the winner in the third (watch those place pools, I got a very agreeable price on that play) for $81 net, hit the winner in the sixth (but missed the tri by a NOSE) for net $14.40, the exacta in the eighth for $25.30 and then a $2 flier in the tenth turned into $121.60.
Net take for the Tampa card today = +$161.20. Very good day.
Tampa Picks For Sunday, January 29th
Published by BG on at 7:06 AM.
Tampa Picks For Sunday, January 29th
I took a look back at the last two days of racing at Tampa (sample size, I know), and noticed that pace setters have only won three of twelve dirt sprints, with either a presser (nipping at the heels of a pace setter) or close stalker coming up with the other nine victories. If a horse isn't capable of getting within three lengths of the leader by the first quarter, he's not scoring a win. The pace setter who doesn't win these sprints (all three on Friday - one MCL with slow fractions, one 5K claimer and an 8.5K claimer who lugged his ass in for an unspectacular win after a pretty solid first four furlongs) isn't placing either.
For this reason, I'm discounting all pace setters today, and doing my best to find some good horses who can stay up close and take advantage of these vulnerable front-runners.
Looking at dirt routes, it's more of the same. Pace fell off the map in a few, but hit the board in a couple of the classier races. By the way, if you've got Virtual Stable email notification at Equibase, there's a horse by the name of SOLDIER'S WORD you need to add to your stable. He ran a 1 and 1/16 MSW race on Friday and won by 11 lengths. Not only that, but he hung a time of 1:44.9 on the teletimer. Fast track you say? Well, two previous races at that distance on the card were run at 1:49.3 and 1:49.8. Worth watching to see where his trainer takes him from here.
On to the picks...
1) 6F $10K Clm N3L - Look at #4 Flight To Eden. Recent speed figs are tops here and have improved over the last three. Par here should be around 61, and there isn't much else in this race close to that number. Three back's sixth place finish was an aberration, as nine of the 12 entries in the field went on to hit the board (4/4/4 WPS) in their next out, plus the winner hung a huge 70 Beyer, which is about four to five points above par for that class (at least). Like him to strike in first, 4/1 on the morning line. You can look at #6 Rare Fool too, but I think he's going to struggle coming from as far off the pace as he seems to want to. His speed figures are there, and he ran a nice one in this class/dist last time out, but I don't see the pace shaping up for a deep closer (for a sprint) to work his magic. Probably a touch of an underlay at 7/2, I'd play at 5/1. PICK! I like #4 above even money.
2) 7F $5K Clm N2Y - Kind of a tough race on paper, there's a lot to like here. The pace might not be hot, but it'll be just north of lukewarm. Some combo of #2 Bus Man Jack, #8 Dragon The Pot and #5 Short Hair should move out front and start the action, and I like all three for different reasons. #2 seems to be improving, and I'll like him here if he can stay in second a good half length or so off the pace through the first three quarters. If that happens, and the fractions are agreeable, I could see him grabbing a piece at a nice price. #8 spiked a big Beyer over his few previous last out, so he's a candidate to bounce in this spot. He'll want to move the action early though, and any repeat of last race (to be fair, he did look primed for a nice uptick, just not 15 points and a lifetime best) will be plenty here. #5 is interesting, as he laid off for just about a year and came back with a vengence. He fired a bullet workout on 1/9 and then came out on 1/19 (ten days later) to totally control the pace and dominate at a slightly lower level than this. It's ten days later, and he's entered here. I like the symmetry (bullet - ten days - hot race - ten days...), and I want to trust the trainer knows what he's doing. I'd really like to see this horse around 9/2 (his morning line) as the minutes to post dwindle. He could improve sharply here. #4 Bruney might be too much of a closer here, but he's ten for his last sixteen in the money (4/4/2) and can't be ignored. I'd like to see the crowd throw their support here and give me better prices elsewhere. I do also like #3 So Far So Go. He's improved three straight Beyers since laying an egg in December, and a 71 Beyer seems within reach again for this horse, which will be very competitive in this class. I like that he's a close stalker, and he's got a real shot here. I'd like him more at 5/1 than his 4/1 morning line though. PICK! #5 above 4/1, #3 above 4/1
3) 7F MCL $12500 - If you want to throw your support behind 3/1 morning line favorite #10 Westcoasteastcoast, be my guest. I'm not getting anywhere near him though. He's had three straight improving Beyers, but he's getting an eight day turnaround and a class jump after being claimed? He's the horse I'm praying is overbet here, and if he wins, more power to you. Good luck to a jockey with 2% winners and a trainer under the Mendoza line himself. I don't know what to think about #8 Greatest Creation. I like improving Beyers, and I like when a horse finds his early speed. He hasn't shown the ability to hold up over the course of the race, however, and despite a pretty solid looking (five furlong?) workout eleven days ago, I'll leave this 4/1 shot out. Give me a shot at #5 Lucky Straight. He's 5/1 on the morning line, gets a class drop and found his early speed last time out. He's got an enormous lifetime Beyer advantage and solid workouts this month. #3 Barkeeper is worth watching too. After a number of blase workouts, he hangs a huge one five days ago. He's never raced before, and I guarantee #10 is going to get a lot of action at the windows. Could be a very fair price on a 9/2 morning line horse. PICK! #5 above 5/2, #3 above 3/1.
4) 1 and 1/16 Clm 5K N2Y - I'm going to toss the likely favorite, #8 Keystone Point. He's running first off a claim with a shittier trainer/jockey combo, and I'm betting on regression. I do like #7 Siberiano with his quick turnaround and class drop. He ran last out with a horse at an unrestricted $6250 tag that had bested a few of these in early January. I think he and #9 Joust will get up front and one of the two will score the win, especially if Joust regains his form from two and three back, which isn't out of the question. PICK! #7 above 8/5, #9 above 2/1.
5) 1 and 1/16 Turf MSW $18K - Lots to like about #7 Selway. He was working successfully back at Gulfstream under Barclay Tagg a year ago, then came off a long layoff with two very consistent performances at Calder and most recently at Tampa. He lost by a neck to an 18-1 shot who grabbed the lead at the three quarter pole and never let go. He'll be wildly overbet, but I like him at any price over even money. Then again, you might find value with #5 Classic Fran. He comes out of much classier company in the New York circuit, and ran a nice warmup performance in his first race off layoff on January 6th. He's 6-1 on the morning line, I fully expect he'll improve and contend. Interesting longshot, if you want to take a flier, might be #3 Stellar Soldier. Like his last two, although they were in June and August and only at a mile on the grass. I think he could be worth a few bucks at 10/1. PICK! #7 at even money, #5 above 9/2, #3 above 9/1.
6) 7F $7500 Clm N2L - God, I hate all of these horses. Do you want to bet on the pace setting horses at a short price? Then jump all over the inconsistent #3 Worthy Performance, who's been toiling at this level since September (always a bridesmaid - or worse), or the nine-tries-to-break-my-maiden mediocrity of the projected even-money oddsline of #7 Smart Connection. #7 gets Umana, so I can't toss him out, but I really want to look elsewhere. I'm tossing the morning line favorite, #8 Slew On Slew, to the wolves here too. Screw playing a horse that needs to find July's form (and hasn't, over five races since September) to contend. How about #5, the imaginatively named Lordlebo N Marylou. He could improve (the pattern is there), and I like that he'll stalk these. I think his problems with late-race stamina might have been corrected when the trainer dumped him in a route last out. I think that's what he was doing there, now he's dialing the horse back down to a sprint and will find the winner's circle at 10/1, and I'll buy a pizza for dinner. PICK! #5 above 5/2, #7 above 5/2
7) 1 and 1/16 Turf Alw $19,200 for 3YO horses - Early speed is 1-5 across grass routes over the last two days, which leaves me wondering how #3 Sweet Grass Creek is going to do. He's by far the classiest horse in the field (bred for $125K, sold in 2004 for $195K) and should take to the grass well. However, he pressed the pace in his last (on the dirt) here in December, and I don't know if that running style will be beneficial here. He has been working out solidly since that race, so I have to believe the trainer has him in the right spot to score. #9 Obispo Street will also be a favorite here, and showed a real nice return to the grass at this class twelve days ago. I like his chances here a lot, but he spiked an improvement last time and he'll have to go even higher today unless #3 collapses. Obispo gets Lezcano, who's won 20% on the turf this year. #5 Red Dirt Road might creep up to take a share, but I don't have a ton of confidence to play him. PICK! #3 above 8/5.
8) 7F MSW 18K - #8 Major Tom is a Nick Zito shipper from Calder, who already took two tries at Belmont and Churchill to break in much better class. He didn't score, but absolutely should here. Play at even money, though I doubt you'll get that. Interesting first time starter #6 Confederate. Kentucky-bred, workout warrior, hung a :38.1 in a 3F workout six days ago. Maybe he grabs the lead and won't let go? PICK!#8 at even money, #6 above 9/2.
9) 1 and 1/16 $19200 Alw - I'm reaching a bit for #7 Rain Spinner. I like Lezcano aboard, I like the improving figures, and I like he had a solid effort (losing to a hot front runner) in this class/dist last out. Very capable of scoring at a nice price. I like two of the favorites here too, with #3 Excellent Job looking very solid. 5/2 for an improving horse seems fair. #1 Gumba comes out of the Illinois circuit, and I like this as a class drop scenario for him. I think this is his distance, even though it seems like his trainers keep tossing him in sprints. Nice workout last week over 4F (:49 flat), and I like him to improve as well. PICK! #7 above 5/2, #3 above 2/1, #1 above 2/1.
10) 1 and 1/16 Turf MSW $18K - Here's an interesting angle... How about #4 Sirdar with a morning line of 8/1? I like that he's a classy horse ($150K to breed, sold in 2002 for $290K), I think he likely battled injuries as a 2YO and 3YO, and didn't make it to the track until he was 4. Three races under his belt, and they don't look spectacular. However, the speed ratings weren't bad, and the track variants for all three of his races were right around 30. That's like running through quicksand. Tampa's turf course has been faster, maybe he scores today? PICK! Play him at 5/1 or better, if you can get it.
11) 7F Clm $7500 N2L - I bet I don't even play this one, I'll likely need a break by now. I don't know if #8 Miesque's Boy deserves to be this heavy (7/5) of a favorite, so I'll look elsewhere. How about #7 Spirit of Life? Nice workout last out, looks to be on the rebound back to his old abilities. Why not? These horses all suck anyway. PICK! #7 above 4/1.
I took a look back at the last two days of racing at Tampa (sample size, I know), and noticed that pace setters have only won three of twelve dirt sprints, with either a presser (nipping at the heels of a pace setter) or close stalker coming up with the other nine victories. If a horse isn't capable of getting within three lengths of the leader by the first quarter, he's not scoring a win. The pace setter who doesn't win these sprints (all three on Friday - one MCL with slow fractions, one 5K claimer and an 8.5K claimer who lugged his ass in for an unspectacular win after a pretty solid first four furlongs) isn't placing either.
For this reason, I'm discounting all pace setters today, and doing my best to find some good horses who can stay up close and take advantage of these vulnerable front-runners.
Looking at dirt routes, it's more of the same. Pace fell off the map in a few, but hit the board in a couple of the classier races. By the way, if you've got Virtual Stable email notification at Equibase, there's a horse by the name of SOLDIER'S WORD you need to add to your stable. He ran a 1 and 1/16 MSW race on Friday and won by 11 lengths. Not only that, but he hung a time of 1:44.9 on the teletimer. Fast track you say? Well, two previous races at that distance on the card were run at 1:49.3 and 1:49.8. Worth watching to see where his trainer takes him from here.
On to the picks...
1) 6F $10K Clm N3L - Look at #4 Flight To Eden. Recent speed figs are tops here and have improved over the last three. Par here should be around 61, and there isn't much else in this race close to that number. Three back's sixth place finish was an aberration, as nine of the 12 entries in the field went on to hit the board (4/4/4 WPS) in their next out, plus the winner hung a huge 70 Beyer, which is about four to five points above par for that class (at least). Like him to strike in first, 4/1 on the morning line. You can look at #6 Rare Fool too, but I think he's going to struggle coming from as far off the pace as he seems to want to. His speed figures are there, and he ran a nice one in this class/dist last time out, but I don't see the pace shaping up for a deep closer (for a sprint) to work his magic. Probably a touch of an underlay at 7/2, I'd play at 5/1. PICK! I like #4 above even money.
2) 7F $5K Clm N2Y - Kind of a tough race on paper, there's a lot to like here. The pace might not be hot, but it'll be just north of lukewarm. Some combo of #2 Bus Man Jack, #8 Dragon The Pot and #5 Short Hair should move out front and start the action, and I like all three for different reasons. #2 seems to be improving, and I'll like him here if he can stay in second a good half length or so off the pace through the first three quarters. If that happens, and the fractions are agreeable, I could see him grabbing a piece at a nice price. #8 spiked a big Beyer over his few previous last out, so he's a candidate to bounce in this spot. He'll want to move the action early though, and any repeat of last race (to be fair, he did look primed for a nice uptick, just not 15 points and a lifetime best) will be plenty here. #5 is interesting, as he laid off for just about a year and came back with a vengence. He fired a bullet workout on 1/9 and then came out on 1/19 (ten days later) to totally control the pace and dominate at a slightly lower level than this. It's ten days later, and he's entered here. I like the symmetry (bullet - ten days - hot race - ten days...), and I want to trust the trainer knows what he's doing. I'd really like to see this horse around 9/2 (his morning line) as the minutes to post dwindle. He could improve sharply here. #4 Bruney might be too much of a closer here, but he's ten for his last sixteen in the money (4/4/2) and can't be ignored. I'd like to see the crowd throw their support here and give me better prices elsewhere. I do also like #3 So Far So Go. He's improved three straight Beyers since laying an egg in December, and a 71 Beyer seems within reach again for this horse, which will be very competitive in this class. I like that he's a close stalker, and he's got a real shot here. I'd like him more at 5/1 than his 4/1 morning line though. PICK! #5 above 4/1, #3 above 4/1
3) 7F MCL $12500 - If you want to throw your support behind 3/1 morning line favorite #10 Westcoasteastcoast, be my guest. I'm not getting anywhere near him though. He's had three straight improving Beyers, but he's getting an eight day turnaround and a class jump after being claimed? He's the horse I'm praying is overbet here, and if he wins, more power to you. Good luck to a jockey with 2% winners and a trainer under the Mendoza line himself. I don't know what to think about #8 Greatest Creation. I like improving Beyers, and I like when a horse finds his early speed. He hasn't shown the ability to hold up over the course of the race, however, and despite a pretty solid looking (five furlong?) workout eleven days ago, I'll leave this 4/1 shot out. Give me a shot at #5 Lucky Straight. He's 5/1 on the morning line, gets a class drop and found his early speed last time out. He's got an enormous lifetime Beyer advantage and solid workouts this month. #3 Barkeeper is worth watching too. After a number of blase workouts, he hangs a huge one five days ago. He's never raced before, and I guarantee #10 is going to get a lot of action at the windows. Could be a very fair price on a 9/2 morning line horse. PICK! #5 above 5/2, #3 above 3/1.
4) 1 and 1/16 Clm 5K N2Y - I'm going to toss the likely favorite, #8 Keystone Point. He's running first off a claim with a shittier trainer/jockey combo, and I'm betting on regression. I do like #7 Siberiano with his quick turnaround and class drop. He ran last out with a horse at an unrestricted $6250 tag that had bested a few of these in early January. I think he and #9 Joust will get up front and one of the two will score the win, especially if Joust regains his form from two and three back, which isn't out of the question. PICK! #7 above 8/5, #9 above 2/1.
5) 1 and 1/16 Turf MSW $18K - Lots to like about #7 Selway. He was working successfully back at Gulfstream under Barclay Tagg a year ago, then came off a long layoff with two very consistent performances at Calder and most recently at Tampa. He lost by a neck to an 18-1 shot who grabbed the lead at the three quarter pole and never let go. He'll be wildly overbet, but I like him at any price over even money. Then again, you might find value with #5 Classic Fran. He comes out of much classier company in the New York circuit, and ran a nice warmup performance in his first race off layoff on January 6th. He's 6-1 on the morning line, I fully expect he'll improve and contend. Interesting longshot, if you want to take a flier, might be #3 Stellar Soldier. Like his last two, although they were in June and August and only at a mile on the grass. I think he could be worth a few bucks at 10/1. PICK! #7 at even money, #5 above 9/2, #3 above 9/1.
6) 7F $7500 Clm N2L - God, I hate all of these horses. Do you want to bet on the pace setting horses at a short price? Then jump all over the inconsistent #3 Worthy Performance, who's been toiling at this level since September (always a bridesmaid - or worse), or the nine-tries-to-break-my-maiden mediocrity of the projected even-money oddsline of #7 Smart Connection. #7 gets Umana, so I can't toss him out, but I really want to look elsewhere. I'm tossing the morning line favorite, #8 Slew On Slew, to the wolves here too. Screw playing a horse that needs to find July's form (and hasn't, over five races since September) to contend. How about #5, the imaginatively named Lordlebo N Marylou. He could improve (the pattern is there), and I like that he'll stalk these. I think his problems with late-race stamina might have been corrected when the trainer dumped him in a route last out. I think that's what he was doing there, now he's dialing the horse back down to a sprint and will find the winner's circle at 10/1, and I'll buy a pizza for dinner. PICK! #5 above 5/2, #7 above 5/2
7) 1 and 1/16 Turf Alw $19,200 for 3YO horses - Early speed is 1-5 across grass routes over the last two days, which leaves me wondering how #3 Sweet Grass Creek is going to do. He's by far the classiest horse in the field (bred for $125K, sold in 2004 for $195K) and should take to the grass well. However, he pressed the pace in his last (on the dirt) here in December, and I don't know if that running style will be beneficial here. He has been working out solidly since that race, so I have to believe the trainer has him in the right spot to score. #9 Obispo Street will also be a favorite here, and showed a real nice return to the grass at this class twelve days ago. I like his chances here a lot, but he spiked an improvement last time and he'll have to go even higher today unless #3 collapses. Obispo gets Lezcano, who's won 20% on the turf this year. #5 Red Dirt Road might creep up to take a share, but I don't have a ton of confidence to play him. PICK! #3 above 8/5.
8) 7F MSW 18K - #8 Major Tom is a Nick Zito shipper from Calder, who already took two tries at Belmont and Churchill to break in much better class. He didn't score, but absolutely should here. Play at even money, though I doubt you'll get that. Interesting first time starter #6 Confederate. Kentucky-bred, workout warrior, hung a :38.1 in a 3F workout six days ago. Maybe he grabs the lead and won't let go? PICK!#8 at even money, #6 above 9/2.
9) 1 and 1/16 $19200 Alw - I'm reaching a bit for #7 Rain Spinner. I like Lezcano aboard, I like the improving figures, and I like he had a solid effort (losing to a hot front runner) in this class/dist last out. Very capable of scoring at a nice price. I like two of the favorites here too, with #3 Excellent Job looking very solid. 5/2 for an improving horse seems fair. #1 Gumba comes out of the Illinois circuit, and I like this as a class drop scenario for him. I think this is his distance, even though it seems like his trainers keep tossing him in sprints. Nice workout last week over 4F (:49 flat), and I like him to improve as well. PICK! #7 above 5/2, #3 above 2/1, #1 above 2/1.
10) 1 and 1/16 Turf MSW $18K - Here's an interesting angle... How about #4 Sirdar with a morning line of 8/1? I like that he's a classy horse ($150K to breed, sold in 2002 for $290K), I think he likely battled injuries as a 2YO and 3YO, and didn't make it to the track until he was 4. Three races under his belt, and they don't look spectacular. However, the speed ratings weren't bad, and the track variants for all three of his races were right around 30. That's like running through quicksand. Tampa's turf course has been faster, maybe he scores today? PICK! Play him at 5/1 or better, if you can get it.
11) 7F Clm $7500 N2L - I bet I don't even play this one, I'll likely need a break by now. I don't know if #8 Miesque's Boy deserves to be this heavy (7/5) of a favorite, so I'll look elsewhere. How about #7 Spirit of Life? Nice workout last out, looks to be on the rebound back to his old abilities. Why not? These horses all suck anyway. PICK! #7 above 4/1.
