Verbosities

Tampa Bay Downs Picks, 3/4/06

Not a terribly exciting early half of the card, I like a lot of chalk up front. That being said, there are a few races later in the afternoon where I'm looking to score by laying off the favorites. On to the card...

Race One - #1 Omit The Dividend is unlikely to find a rabbit out front, which should help his chances. I like him in the mix for exotics - 6/1. #3 Cullen is on the improve. I like his workout pattern, his trainer is capable and his last out was nice. I have a nagging feeling he really wants to be on the grass to run his best though - 5/2. #7 Dr. Thunder, besides having a super-cool name, is the class here. Consistent figs, but where'd the speed from the fall of 2005 go? Marginally consistent effort from this one gets it done. I'm bugged a little bit by how he's been finishing lately, so if you need a reason to go another direction, there you go - 2/1.

DRF likes 3/6/1 here, CompuTrak says #1 and #6 are co-best bets, with 1/6/3 being the low oddsline horses.

Race Two - #1 Dual Diagnosis showed sustained pace for the first time last out. Consistent figs in the last two too. Workouts are just okay. If they run 1A instead of #1, forget we even had this conversation - 3/1. #4 She's A Sweetiepie is a false favorite. Figs are mediocre, but the trainer/jock combo has been really hot (50% winners together). The class drop should help, but I'm not that confident - 3/1. #5 Choir Lady has one race and one wire-to-wire win under her belt. I like that in a sprint, and I like her workouts too. She's got a trainer/jock combo with over 50% winners, and the trainer alone has been hot in 2006, sending almost 40% of his entries to the winner's circle - 5/2. #6 Money Card has been facing tougher allowance races and has posted decent figs in her efforts. Where'd her early speed she had go? - 7/2

DRF likes 5/7/6, CompuTrak makes 2B the pick, with 2B/5/1 the oddsline picks.

Race Three - #4 Outrageous Bill has the Michigan Gerry Bennett/TD Houghton connections, early speed in his workouts, and the trainer sends 21% of first-timers to the winner's circle - 3/1. #5 Howdy Pardner has sustained pace in a route three back, which I like for middling sprints with no obvious rabbits. Still, he's nothing more than interesting - 9/2. Play #4.

DRF likes 3/1/5, CompuTrak has no pick, but has 6/12/9 on the oddsline.

Race Four - #5 Shine Please graduates today. The trainer has been too ambitious to this point, and the class drop will really help - EVEN MONEY. #1 Run Runaway is interesting at 8/1 on the morning line. A step up isn't out of the question, and the trainer knows what he's doing putting the horse here. I like her in exotics for sure - 5/2.

DRF likes 7/5/4, while CT says play #1 (as if you needed more encouragement to do so), with 1/7/5 as the oddsline picks.

Race Five - #9 Picture Puzzle is an easy pick. Every factor says "win," including class, workout pattern and trainer competency - EVEN MONEY, but you may not get that at the windows. For the love of god, stay out of the place pool on this one. #3 La Rochelle is capable here, but I'm turned off by her regression in her workout pattern - 5/1.

DRF says 9/5/3, with #9 a best bet. CT disagrees and likes #3 as the pick, with 3/9/1 on the oddsline.

Race Six - #2 Mary Swan has two awful races in her last and can't seem to figure out where she wants to be on the pace. Ugh - 6/1. #4 Warison has a morning line of 7/2, and that's probably a bit too low for me. 10-12 in the money lifetime, but last out was awful. If you're playing her, it's the second-off-layoff angle that has you intrigued. She was capable a year ago. I'd like to see a good effort before I endorse - 4/1. #8 Simply Fancy won at class and distance two back, improved, and now returns to a place where she nearly scored. I like another consistent effort here - 2/1. #9 Clever Trixie has a nice ability to rate off the pace and close. She ran real wide out of the turn last out and still rallied strong, which earns her bonus points with me - 7/2.

DRF says 2/4/8, CT makes #8 the pick, with 1/8/9 on the oddsline.

Race Seven - #3 Just One More has a lousy trainer, but I liked the 1/1/06 effort down the stretch. However, none of his competition aside from the winner has graduated since, which discounts how "good" that race really looked - 7/2. #7 Mambo Master has nothing to get too excited about at 9/5, other than a lot of unknowns among the rest of the runners. He's classy, well-bred, and has hung good figs two and three back. Workouts are just okay. I say play to beat him if you can't get a price - 2/1. #8 Premeditated had a good race in early December, but do you want to bet a possible pacesetter on the grass over a mile and an eighth? Me either - 4/1. If I'm guessing (and that's all this is), I say chase either #4 Mr. Jones as a first-time starter, or #8 as options aside from Mambo Master.

DRF likes 8/6/3, while CT says #10 is the pick, with 10/6/8 on the oddsline.

Race Eight - #1 Preach It has a lot to like. Two very consistent efforts in her last, and those figs would be competitive here. Is working and racing, which you can't say for a lot of the long laid off contenders here. Should get a good price on this one - 5/2. #5 Sunset Kisses is 5/2 on the morning line? Come on. The trainer is very capable, and the percentages charting her success don't lie, but she (the horse) would need a very strong improvement off a long layoff to score - 6/1. #6 Julie's Prize has had a long, long layoff as well. However, she's shown a history of coming off a layoff with a strong effort, and is 7-8 in the money with six wins at this distance, most of them stakes races. Like this one a lot - 8/5.

DRF says 1 (a best bet)/6/4, with CT posting 3/9/4 on the oddsline.

Race Nine - #2 Yes My Lady has a mother named "No Fat Chicks." God bless America. Ran a good effort last out, think this is a return to her form. Lots to like - 7/2. #3 Perfect Connection is real interesting. Found a pretty fast turf track last out and the fractions - specifically in the stretch - were very solid. Great workouts leading up. A longer shot, but interesting - 4/1. #4 Secret Conquest had a great one last out as well. Held her spot relative to the pace the entire race. I'm not sure if her last was a peak performance, but I'm suspecting it might be - 8/1. #8 Dynaquoit had a great last race (sensing a theme?), but hers was a minor regression off her maiden win performance. I like the "zig zag" pattern here, where a best is followed by a half step back, then a full step forward. So that's best plus a half a step net. She should stay closer to the pace, which will really help - 5/2. #10 Destiny's Say has steadily improved and is rounding into form. Can't ignore here either - 3/1.

DRF says 8 (best bet)/10/2, CT makes #3 the pick with 3/8/6 on the oddsline.

Race Ten - You will never in a million years get me to bet on #3 Message Of A Myth. This is a classic bounce horse who hung a wildly out of character career best last out, I expect a big regression. Don't be surprised if she finished well back of the winner - 10/1. #6 Show Us The Check is 15/1 on the morning line? Why? This might be the longshot play of the day, as far as I'm concerned. You've got to like the pacesetter type in a sprint, and I love the graduation out of $16K N3L class two back. Form darkening egg on the turf in her last, now she gets back to what she's good at - 5/2. #5 Embraceable You is the class here. She'll stalk the pace and a consistent effort gets it done - EVEN MONEY.

DRF says 5/3/10, CT makes 3/10/6 the oddsline picks.

Race Eleven - #1 Aizarunner is a little interesting, but I'd like to see a step forward before I endorse. Might zig-zag into a decent race here, but where does that put him on the Beyer figs? 76? I'm not sure that gets it done - 5/1. #2 Scottago is another zig-zag type, but I expect it from this one. 33% wins in his career over this distance, so you have to believe he'll contend - 5/2. #4 Farnum Alley is a horse once thought to be a Kentucky Derby type, but that wasn't in the cards. I think he's taken to the turf well, can stalk the pace and fire late. That's a great formula for a solid horse in this spot - 2/1. #5 O'Malley is an exotics-only contender, but I think he likes the grass enough to be included in your exacta/trifecta plays - 5/1.

DRF says 2/1/4, CT makes #10 a pick, with 10/7/4 on the oddsline.

Race Twelve - #10 AJ's Coal Bed should win this easily. Huge Beyer advantage - 4/5. #6 Alie's Dolly seems to look decent on paper, but do you want to bet on a horse who's trainer is 1-93 on the grass? Me neither - 7/1.

DRF picks 10 (best bet) /8/6, with CT making #5 a pick and 5/10/6 on the oddsline.

Good luck today. Bet like a champion.

Crash Course In Handicapping: Volume One - Maiden Class

Simply put, a "maiden" is a horse of either sex and any age that has not won a race in its lifetime. Since horses do not begin to race until, at earliest, the summer of their two-year-old (from here, all ages abbreviated as "2YO," "3YO," etc.) season, the textures of a race restricted to younger horses (2YO, 3YO) will usually vary wildly with those of a maiden race for 4YO horses and up. MCL, or "Maiden Claiming" races are of a lower level and class than MSW, or "Maiden Special Weight." MCL graduates tend to move forward into claiming or allowance class, while MSW entrants who improve rapidly and "break" their maiden without struggling through the ranks may become allowance or stakes-capable horses.

The fundamental keys to unlocking these races are seasoning, training and breeding.

Think of seasoning as you would in cooking terms. There are some ingredients of such high quality that the taste delivers on expectations from the instant the unimproved morsel hits your mouth, while other items take preparation and nurturing to deliver on the promise of flavor. It's much the same in maiden races. While there are certainly shooting-star performances from an unraced horse that happen all the time, most horses come in to their racing careers needing on-track experience to find their way to the winner's circle.

Aside from the fact that every horse can't win every race, there are a variety of reasons a maiden may need more than one outing to produce a win. The trainer may have been overly ambitious in early outings, placing the horse among tougher competition than they are capable of beating. The trainer may not recognize the horse's preferences right away either. Some horses are duds on dirt but find their run on the grass, and vice versa. Some horses just cannot run more than six furlongs effectively, while others may look horrible at any distance shorter than a mile. A horse may fight the jockey's intentions in an early outing or two as well, running too fast (early), too slow or too wide to be competitive. Maybe the class has two or more superior horses that need to graduate before he can move forward, or maybe the horse just needs a couple of outings to spark his true ability to the front.

Regardless, most horses will not break their maiden in their first effort. This is not necessarily a knock on their abilities or a bad sign for their future, even if it's a high-priced colt racing against what seem to be inferior horses. It may take a race or three for the horse with the highest of expectations to produce, whether it's finding the right distance, class or field to where he can fire his best effort.

So what gets a horse ready to move forward? Training. Trainers are the head coaches in this sport, the ones that set the gameplan and hope to execute winning strategies for the team. For lightly or unraced horses, our first clue into the trainer's head comes via the workout tabs.

With some exceptions, most horses work out in the early morning hours at the track or a nearby "training center" under the watchful (excuse the pun) eye of a "clocker." Clockers are paid representatives of various data services (such as Equibase, BRIS, The Daily Racing Form) who record the various workout times and distances for horses (of all sorts, not just maidens) on the track that particular morning. While it's undeniably true that a horse that "puts up a bullet" (runs an exceptionally fast workout, usually the best time for the distance of any horse working out that day) may be showing strong form, it's usually more important that a horse in the maiden ranks is working out than how fast he's running in those workouts.

Why? When a horseplayer refers to a horse's "form," he's referring to an abstract and totally subjective evaluation of the horse's fitness as it pertains to the competition he's likely to be facing. A horse that was competitive in $10,000 claiming class in June that can't find anything but last place in $5K claiming company in October is likely to be in "bad form." A horse that shows logical competitive steps from $10K to $25K claiming company over the course of a few months without missing a beat is in "good form."

Maidens may or may not have enough races under their belt to effectively state that their form is "good" or "bad" compared to the competition. This is where workouts come in to play. A series of good and logical workouts leading up to a race can indicate a horse is "rounding into form." Lackluster work tabs after a rough go in their first outing can be seen as entirely the opposite. As mentioned, the concept of form is entirely subjective. A trainer may have found that working a horse hard enough to show a good time is detrimental to an upcoming race, or he may have put the horse in an entirely unwinnable position in his last race, hoping to have the jockey teach the horse something new.

The subjective nature of "form," particularly with lightly raced maiden horses, is somewhere between "the eyeball test" and rocket science. One of the common strategies for divining form in maiden races (specifically 2YO and early 3YO horses) is to interpret the data through the prism of breeding.

I truly know next-to-nothing in specific regarding this angle. However, a studious dataminer could find angles to play regarding sires or dams that pass along aptitude towards a specific distance or surface, or spawn a greater percentage of first-time-starter winners than the competition. Regardless, there are some things the untrained and inexperienced horseplayer can identify on the form that may provide clues to the horse's capability. We'll get into those below.

How To Integrate These Keys Into Your Handicapping

2YO and 3YO-Restricted Maiden Races

DIRT SPRINTS (Up to 7.5 furlongs)

Dirt sprints are the most common maiden races, as many trainers see a six- or seven-furlong sprint as a natural first stepping stone out of three, four and five-furlong workouts.

DIRT ROUTES (One mile or longer)

Many desireable studs and dams for the thoroughbred industry come from "Classic" distance stock. In other words, these bloodlines are from Kentucky Derby type runners who are bred to route over a mile plus.

TURF SPRINTS (Up to 7.5 furlongs)

Reasonably uncommon, but still out there. I like to see a horse can capably run on the turf and as a pacestalker before I'm willing to back them with my dollars.

TURF ROUTES (One mile or longer)

For my money, these are the easiest of the bunch to find the winner on paper. You not only want to look for surface aptitude and a horse that can handle the distance, but you also want to find a horse that's comfortable rating off the pace and closing in fast fractions. That's a learned skill, and more so than any of the above listed races, jockey performance is a key indicator.

What do you want to look for on the program to pick a winner?

Seasoning

Has the horse raced before?

Obviously, you'd like to see that the horse has raced once or twice, and that he has capably and competitively handled the distance and surface the trainer's asking him to run today. With younger horses, especially in the MCL classes, this is crucial. In the MSW classes you'll more often see a well-bred, well-trained first-time starter do well, as better horses tend to start there.

Is today's class and distance a step up, down, or straight across for him?

If the horse looked inexplicably atrocious last out in the same class, don't play him. If he looked inexplicably atrocious last out in a higher class, you're going to have to look to find another reason to play or toss him. With a young horse who's lightly raced, I'm more likely to believe a change in class or distance will lead to the horse running a better race if the trainer has a good record. I trust that a good trainer knows what he's doing taking a router down to a sprint, or a MSW horse down to $12.5K claiming company. Otherwise, you'd ideally like to see a horse doing the same thing he did last time, with a solid workout or two in between. With most capable trainers, that pattern spells "improvement."

Is the horse improving?

When you're looking at a complete history of a horse's past performances, and those performances only stretch over two to five races, improvement patterns are easy to spot. You want to look for speed figures that are improving, but not by enormous amounts. You want to see a horse that has seemingly figured out its running style, and has improved his finishing position. You want to look at workouts to make sure the horse is running and staying in shape. It's terribly obvious when you're looking at a loser, even with only three races to his credit. What you need to find is a horse that ran a race last out that was recognizably better than his race two back, with a trainer that's asking him to do the same things he's been getting better at. Even as an abstract principle, that's an easy thing to see on paper.

Is a seemingly competitive horse facing a bunch of horses who haven't raced before?

In most cases, especially in the MCL levels, I will automatically discount the chances of a horse running for the first time against a horse that has run at the same class/distance with a pattern of improvement and success behind him.

Seasoning Angles
· Horses that finished second last time out (especially in the same class/distance) are more likely to move forward.
· Horses that have a reasonably substantial positive gap between their recent Beyer Speed Figure and the figures posted historically by the rest of the field are likely winners.
· A horse that flashed sustained early speed (led the race through nearly the whole thing) for the first time in their last is a good bet in their next in a sprint on the dirt.
· A horse that comes out of a "key race," or one that returns two or more winners into their next races, is likely to show a great deal of improvement compared to their last finish.
· A horse that has raced competitively in this class/distance/surface combination has a decided advantage over an unraced horse in nearly every case.
· A horse that only needs to marginally improve to score, who has shown a logical and measured pattern of improvement in recent months can often be counted on to improve if he's being asked to do the same things he's already proven he's been learning already.

Training

Is the horse being asked to do something he's done before?

Too many terrible trainers throw random darts looking to hit the bullseye by guessing if the horse will take to the grass, or dial back to a sprint or whatever. While you do have to give credit to a successful trainer (at any level, not just Todd Pletcher and his competition) who looks to be taking a horse in a different direction, that doesn't necessarily mean that it's going to be a successful tactic the first (or any) time out. If a relatively green horse is entered in a wildly opposite race from any of his previous, he should probably be discounted at the windows.

Does it look like the trainer has a plan for the horse?

As a corollary to the above, I want to see a trainer who knows what he's doing. Whether it's a class drop that's needed to get the win, or a pattern of workouts designed to help an early rocket find his endurance, the trainer's intentions are often easy to see in a lightly-raced horse. Some things may look odd on paper, such as a 6F workout five days prior to a sprint on the dirt. It's odd to see a horse move from sprint to route and back (or vice versa), so take as much as you can from who is behind the moves. If it's a small-potatoes trainer with a 2% win percentage? I'm willing to believe he's over his head and struggling. If it's one of the big names at the track? They land the owners with the good horses and they generally have a good idea as to what they're doing - even with the most unseasoned of horses.

Has the horse been working out?

An older horse, even in the MCL ranks as a 4YO or 5YO, may not need workouts between races. I almost uniformly demand them of the horses I back in MCL/MSW class. A good rule of thumb is that you should see work on a ten-day (or less) basis for the past 60 days. Minimum. This does include races in which the horse has run. Sometimes the workout tab may look sparse, which may mean the horse has been working out remotely or privately - or possibly not at all. I try to avoid the gut feeling I'm being duped by a devious trainer and move to the next horse on the list.

Do the quality of the workouts tell you anything?

Absolutely. But context is the key. What looks like a middling time of :40 for a 3F workout at Tampa wouldn't be enough to put a horse in the top 25 times for the day. But if the trainer backs it up with a couple of sharper times at 4F or 5F before race day, you're probably looking at a horse who isn't going to want the lead, and is being conditioned to rate from off the pace. If the 4F and 5F workout times are solid, the 3F time doesn't end up meaning anything specific, beyond the trainer's intention to spare the horse an eighth of a mile that morning. What you want to look for on workout times are improvements. If a young horse who was posting :39.6 for 3F and all of a sudden wakes up two weeks later with a :38.2? Take notice. If he's already shown he can stalk from just off the pace and doesn't lose ground in the stretch, I'd be willing to believe that workout bullet could put him over the top and in the winner's circle. Since there's a great deal of difference between tracks and days, I won't bother quoting par times for workouts. They do all come accompanied by a positional ranking for that morning, such as 18/32, or eighteenth fastest out of thirty-two. Considering there could be all sorts of allowance, high claiming and stakes horses on the track working out too, don't put too much stock in what 23/33 really means. Find a context through which to interpret those results, and use that to make a good decision.

Training Angles
· A horse that has set pace in a sprint and held it nearly the whole race may do the same with more success when asked to run farther.
· Workouts at 3F are intended to sharpen the horse's early speed. 4F work is a general run for most horses, while 5F work is designed to increase endurance. Take a look at where the horse has been showing weaknesses previously, and match a workout to what the trainer might be looking to fix. If it makes sense, and the workouts are solid for the horse's skill level, improvement might be in the cards.
· Look for a pattern of improvement in workouts, and if you see it there it has a good chance of translating to race day as well.
· A good trainer knows how to get a horse ready for an unusual situation better than a bad one.
· A young or lightly-raced horse that's both working out and racing has an advantage over a young or lightly-raced horse that has only been racing.

Breeding

As mentioned, this is not an area where I have any expertise. A few rules of thumb I use are below. These are not pass/fail indicators as much as they are possible tie-breakers for decision making.

Breeding Angles
· Most programs will tell you how much a horse's breeding charge was, or how much he was purchased for at auction. These numbers can clumsily be used to determine if a horse is "classier" than another.
· In an MSW race with very few races under anyone's belt, I believe the more expensive (classier) horses have an edge.
· If you (the weekend horseplayer) recognize the name of the sire, chances are that's a Kentucky Derby type "Classic" distance runner. Many of these horses may perform solidly in routes on the dirt.
· The indicators "ARG," "IRE," "GB," "FRA," and others are indicative of foreign-born/bred horses. Since turf racing is more prevalent than dirt racing in other parts of the world, I give marginal bonus credit to horses on turf with foreign blood in their lines.

Maiden Races for 4YO and Up

Most of the same rules apply from above, but with a few distinctions. First, older horses are less likely to be facing a field of totally inexperienced horses. Therefore, handicapping these races allows more of an apples-to-apples comparison, particularly using Beyer figures and indicators of consistency or improvement. Second, you'll run into more obvious horses to cross of the list when you're able to look at consistency/class/speed differences in horses with races to their credit.

Angles To Add To The List
· Regardless as to how far a class drop a horse is making, if he's gone without a win for a "significant" amount of races, I label him a "bridesmaid," toss him from win pool consideration and move on. Certainly these horses will win some of the time, but I will not waste my money on a horse that has taken 20-25 races to find the winner's circle, no matter how good he looks on paper.
· Finding horses exiting "key races" and showing speed figure improvement becomes easier and more effective when class and speed can be compared across multiple lines with multiple horses.
· There is less of an "anything can happen" feeling to these affairs, with a horse that looks like the obvious favorite probably crossing the line first in most cases.
· A horse that ran competitively in strong MSW class on another circuit, laid off for 60+ days, and returns to a lesser circuit in MCL class is often a strong bet.
· While looking at recent performance remains important, if a horse is returning to a distance or surface where he showed aptitude at an earlier point of his career, it is worth considering why he was moved to begin with, if he learned anything useful, and what sort of effort he'd have to produce in order to replicate or improve upon that earlier effort.

While you absolutely want to utilize any and all tools you can learn to use properly to dissect a race, this should be enough to get you started with maiden racing. If any better handicappers than I have anything to add, please do feel free to comment. Any help I can steer towards those of my friends willing to learn is cool by me.

Secret Six: Playing Through A Cold Streak

Series originally published 10/24/05 - 10/29/05 at OJ

Six Secrets of Successful Bettors : Winning Insights into Playing the Horses by Frank Scatoni and Peter Thomas Fornatale, covers more than just horse racing. There’s a gambler’s mentality that’s important to cultivate, and the authors are able to cull a great deal of input from their interviewees on this topic alone. Chapter six, "It’s One Long Game," features a good look at putting what’s behind you, well, behind you. From the book:

"You have to be able to keep your wits about you. You have to keep making good plays. You have to stay cool when things are going bad. Like I said, if I’m having a bad day and I look at the rest of the card and see something I really like later on, I’ll take it easy until then and try and make a big hit there. Today is not the end of the world. If I lose today, I come back tomorrow."

Horse racing to us is recreational, poker is more serious in this regard, and you see poor losers dotting the landscape at every online site. You’ve got to learn to take a losing day, or a brutal beat as well as possible. Yes, the beat may have just cost you a lot of money, but if you’re consistently making good decisions and playing the odds, ultimately these swings will go in your favor. Poisoning your mentality leads to pressing, tilt, or worse.

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Secret Five: Cutting Through The Crap

Series originally published 10/24/05 - 10/29/05 at OJ

When playing blackjack, there’s a generally accepted way to play a soft seventeen against a dealer’s four. When gambling horses, there is no one right way to dissect the data. In the book Six Secrets of Successful Bettors : Winning Insights into Playing the Horses by Frank Scatoni and Peter Thomas Fornatale, chapter five is all about knowing your strengths and weaknesses as a gambler, and how to exploit those assets appropriately. From the chapter "Woulda… Coulda… Shoulda… Doesn’t Get It Done:"

"Learning to handicap is an evolutionary process–everyone begins as a neophyte. The general progression is you start out knowing nothing and then you learn everything–and then you cull out the things that are not important. But there’s a lot of trial and error."

Some people have these little gambling truths that they’ve learned throughout the years. "Never bet against Brett Favre in-division," would be an example. Horse racing throws a lot of data at you, and unless you’re learning what’s working for you (in our case, identifying overlays on second- and third-priced horses on the board) and ditching what’s not (trifectas, they were killing our bankroll), you’re not doing anything more than throwing aimless dollars into your hobby. Get better.

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Secret Four: You Guess, You Lose

Series originally published 10/24/05 - 10/29/05 at OJ

Since there’s a total of six secrets published in Six Secrets of Successful Bettors : Winning Insights into Playing the Horses by Frank Scatoni and Peter Thomas Fornatale, and since there are only five days in a week, you’re getting your Wednesday Bonus Secret at half price today. Congrats. If we’re supposed to only play winning propositions, how do you find these props and play them properly? From the chapter "If I Only Knew How To Bet:"

"A lousy handicapper, who bets on hopeless horses or takes the worst of prices, has no shot. A decent handicapper who makes idiotic bets won’t do much better… The truth is that only a small number of people are 20 percent better than the market in order to beat the takeout, and that just gets you even. It’s a tough, tough game to win."

If you find yourself losing big on wild four-team parlays with your bookie, you take it down a notch and single a few teams, right? The object is to win, not collect uncashable tickets. Same theory here. You can be right on the winner, but if you’re looking to play nothing but Superfectas, you’re going to wait a long time between winning tickets. Play smart, make bets you can feel confident in, and be content to take "just" 3-1 on your money when that price is actually an overlay.

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Secret Three: Finding Value

Series originally published 10/24/05 - 10/29/05 at OJ

Probably the most important lesson from Six Secrets of Successful Bettors : Winning Insights into Playing the Horses by Frank Scatoni and Peter Thomas Fornatale is what could be called the "Fundamental Theory of Horse Betting." Quoting Cary Fotias from the book in regards to the concept of value, "You should never play unless you’re getting the best of it." From the chapter "The Never-Ending Quest For Value:"

"Always put a price on a horse’s head–and only bet when you’re getting a couple of odds levels better. If you can’t put a price on a horse’s head, you have little chance of winning at this game. Everything comes back to the odds. Just because a horse is on a great pattern line doesn’t mean he should automatically be bet. The price must still be right."

Putting it another way, if we told let you bet a quarter on the roll of a dice, but only paid you a dollar when your number hit, are you getting value? What if we paid you two dollars? Winning the dollar is ultimately a losing proposition, but getting two bucks as the prize puts you way out ahead in the long run.

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Secret Two: Think Differently

Series originally published 10/24/05 - 10/29/05 at OJ

More horse racing wisdom to digest today from Six Secrets of Successful Bettors : Winning Insights into Playing the Horses by Frank Scatoni and Peter Thomas Fornatale. Every day this week we’ll pull a quote from the book, doing our best to gear you up for Breeders’ Cup Saturday. From the chapter "The Information Edge:"

"The… most important step is to look at the race as a betting proposition. Only now do I look at the morning line and the DRF analysis and consensus picks. What I am of course hoping is that I have seen the race differently from the way the public is likely to–there’s going to be an odds-on favorite I think is vulnerable, or I thought there was a standout in what others find an impossible event."

If it’s apparent that the favorite would win this race 100 times out of 100, then you should play the favorite at any price. Most races aren’t as clear, and the process of finding value - getting 6-1 on a horse that should win 25 times out of 100 - is absolutely crucial.

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Six Secrets Series: First Secret? You're Wrong

Series originally published 10/24/05 - 10/29/05 at OJ

One of the ways we get fired up for the looming Breeders Cup card is to pick up one of our favorite books and re-read, looking for that little extra wisdom that can hopefully tip the scales in our direction. That book is Six Secrets of Successful Bettors : Winning Insights into Playing the Horses by Frank Scatoni and Peter Thomas Fornatale, and every day this week we’ll pull a quote from the book and give you something to chew on before the big day hits. From the chapter "A Hard Way To Make An Easy Living:"

"I have a Ten commandments of racing, and one of them is, if most people do it at a racetrack, then it’s wrong! If you do the opposite, you have a better chance. Most people bet less if the odds go up, and when they go down they bet more. Wrong! Most players who get ahead tend to wrap up, and most players who are losing press. Wrong! Every natural instinct you have, regardless of your IQ, is wrong at the racetrack."