Verbosities

Hullabaloo - One of Them

I had a delightful conversation recently with a very smart and experienced political observer who told me that Romney would likely end up being the GOP nominee --- he was the establishment choice, business guy, good brand, looks good on TV. The elites had signed off on him just as they'd signed off on Junior, Dole, Senior etc and that's how it's done.

Since a truly open primary on both sides is unusual (and Bush has badly damaged the establishment along with everyone else) it will be interesting to see if they have the same power they usually do.

[snip]

(O)ld Mitt really is one them --- a rich, white businessman who will reliably advance the interests of the tribe and that is what matters. After all, their boy Bush may have screwed up the whole world, but he delivered for them. They'll back whichever candidate will do that the best.

Digby hits it right on the head with this one. Before you just concede the race to Fred Thompson, it's worthwhile to understand exactly who's backing Romney, and how a virtual unknown south and west of Boston managed to be a fundraising juggernaut. The GOP establishment - and by that, I mean the guys who have the money and the influence to play kingmaker - are the ones who boosted Romney to a GOP-best $23M over the first quarter of the year.

That's hardly insignificant. The guy didn't enter the race with trumpets heralding his candidacy, he came in as the guy who proved his CEO-caliber connections with a single-day record $6.5M in fundraising among his peers. He came in showing the same willingness to pander to conservative causes (abortion, gay marriage) he seemingly didn't hold just a few years back. He came in with a perceived religious handicap which, to date, hasn't seemed to hold him back considerably in the polls.

Digby asserts that "it will be interesting to see if (the GOP establishment has) the same power they usually do." Moreover, he thinks that the Right, as the party of the authoritarian mindset, is likely to go along with whomever they're sold as the guy the establishment wants. While that's an interesting way to analyze the situation, it's not far-fetched to imagine a scenario where money buys media and a coordinated effort is made to canonize Mitt and swift-boat the rest of the true contenders, should they decide he's really the guy.

Ideas don't really matter much, at least not in the face of misinformation. If they want to install Mitt as their candidate, they're going to make every effort to make that happen. Obviously, if the donors who have backed Mitt decide there's a better option out there (Fred, for one), they reserve the right (excuse the pun) to be fickle and change sides. I think the indicators will come in the form of fundraising totals over the next two quarters, and how aggressive the message starts to be from Rush and Drudge and Fox News attempting to fence off a candidate or two as the true standard bearers at the expense of the other nine.

Although I can't frigging find it at the moment, I have said previously that I thought Mitt's fundraising machine indicated a rabid level of establishment support, and that it was a significant sign that he was being groomed for the nomination. I continue to choose to believe that those in the party with the most significant economic interests at stake in this election are going to be the ones determining who gets the nom, and at this point they seem to be behind Romney. It's obviously early, and Digby, his informant and I could all prove to be wrong about this, but $23M in first quarter fundraising from a near-unknown isn't insignificant at all.

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