Verbosities

Evangelicals, Christian right, Republicans, James Dobson, Rudy Giuliani | Salon.com

No doubt Dobson and his fellow true believers would rather not bolt; instead they hope that the Republicans will heed them and abandon Giuliani -- based on the same "electability" argument that some Democrats have used against Hillary Clinton. The latest Rasmussen poll provides statistical support for that ploy, showing that up to 27 percent of Republican voters would prefer a third-party candidate of the Christian right to either Giuliani or Clinton. In a three-way race pitting the two front-runners against an unnamed "family values" candidate, Clinton wins with 46 percent and Giuliani is left with only 30 percent. So the Dobson faction may well be able to ruin the Republicans next year and bid to rule them in future elections. At the moment, however, it has no plausible candidate and no alternative strategy.

CJ and I have been discussing the Dobson dissatisfaction on the IM lately, but instead of emailing him on this, I thought I'd post it.

This line: "...and bid to rule them in future elections," is where I think you're wrong that the influence of the Christian Right will come back to the Republicans no matter who they run. Try to assume for a minute that these guys aren't as interested in a single election, but in the broader increase of their influence in the party. If they can rally this 27% (which seems really, really high - but we'll work with the numbers we have), or at least a significant portion of that 27%, away to a third-party candidate simply by mobilizing their voting bloc, the Republicans are going to have a Democratic President in the White House working under a mandate* (let's say they get 51% of the vote, with Giuliani getting 48-less-that-27%, which gives him about 40% instead of 48%). If they don't bring the Christian Right back to the table (or find a way to replace that 27%, which is far less likely to be possible), they can count on being the minority party as long as Dobson's people continue to hold their breath and stomp their feet.

*I know that "mandate" means "serious majority," but I think it's fair to say that a double-digit win in the election allows either party to claim they have a mandate.

I think Dobson is serious about backing a third-party candidate if Giuliani gets the nom. The question is, how much of that voting bloc can he take with him, and will it be a significant enough number to allow the Christian Right the chance to play kingmaker in 2012?

I think the current political climate sets up really nicely for this ploy of his to work. We've got a wildly unpopular Republican president, a couple of Democratic challengers already flush with campaign cash, and the longer this war drags on a (presumably) growing fatigue with the GOP that will mobilize the Democrats to take back to the White House. Basically, if Dobson believes this election is likely to be a lost cause on top of the ticket, this is a good chance to show Grover Norquist exactly what kind of power he's capable of wielding. If he can cost the GOP nominee five points or more at the polls, he can come back in 2012 with a great deal more influence in establishing a fascist theocracy helping to choose the next GOP nominee.

I think this is why the pundits on the right are currently trying to award the nomination to Hillary, as it's perceived that she's so divisive that the GOP voters will ignore all other ideals and get out the vote to defeat her. It reeks of desperation when you're thirteen months out and are already subtly invoking the boogity(wo)man to the public, but if that's all you got then run with it.

The one thing you need to remember about single-issue voters (let's call "values" a single-issue for this conversation) is that they are willing to take short-term losses to gain long-term victories. Dobson's making the right play as an influence peddler by stepping away from the GOP loyalists and attempting to take his voting bloc with him. We all know that the Christian Right can't get the type of political results they want without the help of the non-Christian-Right GOP, but the Christian Right can increase their political influence by showing the party apparatus exactly what their support means at the polls in 2008.

And if you think they aren't prepared to hold out to get exactly what they want, then you're too hung up on their supposed ideological compatibility with the party. We all know two things. One, that the Christian Right won't vote Democrat, and two, that a third-party candidate cannot win.

Right. But they're not trying to win the Presidential election of 2008 with this maneuver, and if they can mobilize the leaders in the big-box churches across the country to spend the next thirteen months pounding the righteousness of their plan into the heads of their sheep flocks, then there's a good chance they're going to be able to generate the political results they're looking for in 2012.

Powered by ScribeFire.